Israel’s Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said last week that the indirect talks which his country has been conducting with Syria in recent weeks through Turkish intermediaries would shortly make way for direct negotiations. This has been widely interpreted as a sign that progress is being made.

By highlighting the talks with Syria, Olmert may, of course, be merely seeking to distract attention from his acute political problems at home, where he is fighting to defend himself against damaging charges of corruption. Few observers of the Israeli political scene expect him to survive in office long beyond the summer.

But, whatever his motives, it is undeniable that there is something of a new mood in the Middle East — with Syria at the center of a good deal of diplomatic activity.

Syria seems to have had a hand in the truce in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, as well as in the earlier Doha accord between Lebanon’s warring factions — which is expected to lead this week, after many delays and much squabbling, to the formation of a national unity government in Beirut.

Syria has also greatly — and suddenly — improved its relations with France and also with Germany, although Chancellor Angela Merkel had earlier been notoriously cool towards Damascus. High-level emissaries from both countries have been in Damascus or are expected there shortly. The Norwegian Foreign Minister, Jonas Gahr Store — a key promoter of the Middle East peace process — has also visited the Syrian capital in recent days.

Syria’s President Bashar al-Asad is due in Paris on July 12 for talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and will be attending the grand launch the following day of one of Sarkozy’s pet projects — the Union for the Mediterranean — attended by over 40 heads of state and government.

According to diplomatic observers of the Syrian-Israeli talks, the two sides have so far been reviewing, and updating, the issues that they negotiated in the 1990s, when the two countries came close to an agreement. These issues include:

• The reaffirmation of an Israeli pledge to withdraw from the entire Golan within a context of peace, in which Israel’s security concerns would be addressed.

• Reaching agreement on the tracing of the border between the two countries.

• Establishing a timetable for the withdrawal of Israeli settlers from the Golan.

• Reaching agreement on the future security arrangements between the two countries. These would include demilitarized zones on either side of their common border, together with zones of limited forces, and early warning stations.

• Secure access to the water resources of the Golan, and their distribution between the two countries.

• The possibility of establishing a ‘peace park’ on the north-eastern shores of Lake Tiberias, to which both Syrians and Israelis would have access.

Diplomatic sources say that each of these subjects will require extensive negotiations which will, very probably, be extended into next year — no doubt with American involvement at the right time. Both sides are awaiting the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections, each for its own reasons.

The talks have been concentrating on establishing an agenda for negotiations rather than on embarking on substantive issues. No attempt has so far been made to tackle two highly sensitive issues: first, the impact of the talks on Syria’s long-standing strategic partnership with Iran; and secondly the link, if any, between the Israeli-Syrian track and the Israeli-Palestinian track.

Israel has made no secret that its prime aim in the talks is to sever Syria’s alliance with Iran — at first sight an unrealistic aim. As for the link with the Palestinian track, Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid al-Mallim has said that progress in the talks with Israel must not be at the expense of the Palestinians, or be used by Israel against them.

It remains to be seen how far Syria can afford to advance in its bilateral negotiations with Israel in the absence of serious progress towards Palestinian statehood.

Patrick Seale is a leading British writer on the Middle East, and the author of “The Struggle for Syria”; also, “Asad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East”; and “Abu Nidal: A Gun for Hire.” Copyright © 2008 Patrick Seale