CAIRO (IPS) — Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), rocked Egypt’s political arena last year by announcing his desire to contest the presidency. But while the idea has fired the imagination of political activists, many analysts remain skeptical.

A protester shouts anti-government slogans during a demonstration by members of the opposition against the government of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo, April 13, 2010. Egyptian police detained one protester and scuffled with others among a group of about 200 demonstrating on Tuesday for an end to Mubarak’s 29-year rule, a security source and witnesses said.                    REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh

“ElBaradei set a number of conditions for his candidacy, but the chance of even one of them being implemented is virtually nil,” Amr Hashem Rabie, expert in parliamentary affairs at the semi-official Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, told IPS. Currently the darling among reformist circles, ElBaradei in recent weeks has attempted to raise his profile among ordinary Egyptians. On Mar. 26, he performed Friday prayers — wearing traditional Egyptian garb — at a prominent mosque in a low-income district of Cairo. “We hope this street tour… sends a message not only to the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) but to old opposition parties that ElBaradei and his supporters are serious about change,” ElBaradei spokesman Hamdi Qandil was quoted as saying. Ranking members of President Hosni Mubarak’s NDP, meanwhile, dismissed the move. “[ElBaradei] is wrong if he thinks performing Friday prayers at a famous mosque and hugging poor citizens on the street is the pathway to the presidency,” Shura Council spokesman and NDP stalwart Mohamed Ragab was quoted as saying. Having finished his tenure as IAEA chief, ElBaradei first floated the notion of running in 2011 presidential elections last December, but conditioned his candidacy on an ambitious list of demands. These included guarantees that elections would be free and fair, along with constitutional amendments to allow independent candidates to run for president and ensure electoral oversight by independent monitors. “My hope is that in the year-and-a-half run-up to the presidential elections the rules of the political game in Egypt will change,” ElBaradei declared in a recent television interview. As it currently stands, presidential candidates must be members of an established — i.e., government-licensed — opposition party, which ElBaradei is not. NDP officials, meanwhile, have repeatedly stressed that constitutional amendments are not in the offing. Despite a savaging by the ruling party’s formidable state media machine, ElBaradei received a hero’s welcome when he arrived in Egypt on Feb. 19. Over a thousand euphoric supporters turned out to greet him at Cairo International Airport. In a series of subsequent interviews in the independent media, ElBaradei — taking a page, perhaps, from U.S. President Barack Obama — trumpeted the need for “change.” “I want to change the country, and if the way to change it is to become president, then first I want that opportunity, then I will decide whether I will run,” he announced shortly after his arrival. Capitalizing on the widespread unpopularity of Mubarak’s almost three-decade-long rule, ElBaradei’s vows of change drew positive reactions from large swathes of the public, particularly among politically-active young people. Within days, an “ElBaradei for President” group on social-networking website Facebook sailed passed the 100,000-member mark. On Feb. 23, independent daily “Al-Masry Al-Youm” reported that the group was averaging 13 new members per minute. It currently boasts more than 200,000 members. “People have begun to join the campaign from all political orientations, from the extreme right to the extreme left,” Mahmoud Adel al-Heta, 22-year-old university student and founder of the pro-ElBaradei Facebook group, told IPS. ElBaradei upped the ante in late February, establishing the National Assembly for Change (NAC), a broad coalition of opposition forces devoted to political reform. Along with other demands, including an end to Egypt’s longstanding Emergency Law, the NAC wants to see three articles of the constitution — 76, 77 and 88, which determine how the president is elected and set presidential term limits — amended. “ElBaradei’s purpose for setting political conditions isn’t necessarily to win the presidency, but to promote political reform in Egypt,” said al-Heta. “The most important demand is that elections be held freely and fairly and that independent candidates are allowed to run.” Some critics, however, say these conditions are unrealistic. “Whatever happens, elections will feature an NDP candidate, along with a couple candidates from small opposition parties that don’t represent the public — and, of course, the ruling party candidate will win,” said Rabie. “And it would be difficult for ElBaradei to backtrack on these conditions once they’re made.” Rabie also expressed doubt that ElBaradei and his NAC would succeed in their effort to rally the broader public behind the need for constitutional reform. “The ruling regime won’t meet these demands because the Egyptian public has become inured to the notion that economic and social issues, such as unemployment and rampant inflation, are more important than political reform,” he said. “Only the intelligentsia and the small politically-active class put political reform at the top of the agenda.” While ElBaradei has focused on domestic matters — frequently citing figures on poverty, illiteracy and Egypt’s economic growth — he has largely avoided addressing regional or international issues. ElBaradei’s performance as IAEA director, meanwhile, has been subject to little if any scrutiny by most political commentators. Soheir Morsy, former university professor and author of a UNICEF report on the impact of pre-war sanctions on Iraqi children, criticized ElBaradei’s role in the U.N.-imposed sanctions regime. According to Morsy, the sanctions — which lasted from 1990 to 2003 — were prolonged by the regular dispatch of U.N. inspectors, including ElBaradei, to Iraq. ElBaradei “could have declared his disapproval and resigned,” Morsy was quoted as saying in the Mar. 11 edition of the government-run Al-Ahram Weekly. She pointed out that several high-level diplomats within the U.N. tendered their resignations in protest over the sanctions’ deadly effects on the Iraqi people, especially children. By contrast, ElBaradei “served for three terms at the helm of the IAEA and was rewarded, receiving a Nobel Prize in 2005,” she said, adding: “The blood of the Iraqis is on his hands.”