In Lebanon, 2010 saw the fragile political balance teetering on the edge of breakdown while Israeli threats of renewed war continued, writes Omayma Abdel-Latif

Contrary to its beginning, which witnessed a number of political and civil initiatives towards national reconciliation, 2010 was largely marked by events that put at risk the country’s fragile stability, threatening a renewal of the political polarization and communal rifts that gripped the country since 2005.

As the year came to a close, Lebanon was bracing itself as signs of hard times ahead became all too apparent. The national unity government faced paralysis and the risk of collapse, key political forces abandoned national dialogue, and incessant Israeli threats of renewed war on Lebanon continued.

The Lebanese political scene continues to be divided into two rival alliances: 8 March (the former opposition) led by Hizbullah and Michel Aoun, head of the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and 14 March, or what remains of it, led by Tayyar Al-Mustaqbal (the Future Movement) of Saad Al-Hariri, the Lebanese Forces led by former warlord Samir Geagea, and the Lebanese Phalange (Al-Kateib.) A third way led by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt – who changed course and defected from 14 March – could not break the main polarization.

Dominating political discourse was conflict over the U.N. Special Tribunal assigned to investigate the killing of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri; that and Israel spy cells, continuous threats of imminent war by Israel, and WikiLeaks revelations that caught the headlines.

The Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) was set up by a 2007 U.N. Security Council resolution in order to investigate the killing of former prime minister Al-Hariri and to bring the perpetrators to trial. Its performance has triggered much controversy in Lebanon. A series of investigation blunders, including testimonies from false witnesses and continuous leaks to the press from inside sources, inflicted severe damage on the tribunal’s credibility.

The Hizbullah-Aoun alliance has always expressed doubt about the credibility of the tribunal, charging that it is being used as a tool to implicate Hizbullah in Al-Hariri’s killing. In March, Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah confirmed press leaks that some 18 Hizbullah members were summoned to the investigation as “witnesses” if not “suspects.” He promised to continue to cooperate with the investigation but conditioned this cooperation on the end of leaks to the press.

The tribunal has been dogged by leaks since the outset of the investigation. Initially, leaks implicated Syria in the assassination, accusations that were echoed by the 14 March alliance and by then majority leader Saad Al-Hariri. Reconciliation between Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and Al-Hariri put an end to these accusations. In an interview with the Saudi-financed Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper in September, Al-Hariri acknowledged that accusing Syria had been “politically motivated” and was not supported by evidence. He also admitted the existence of “false witnesses” whom he accused of undermining relations between Lebanon and Syria.

Revelations that the tribunal was likely to indict Hizbullah affiliates confirmed fears that the tribunal is now being used as a battering ram against Hizbullah. In response, Hizbullah leaders have gone on a media offensive, aiming to prove that the investigation is skewed and the tribunal politicized. Hizbullah’s efforts were mainly directed at its larger Arab and Muslim followers.

The offensive reached a climax in August when Nasrallah revealed – in a three-hour press conference – valuable evidence that points a finger at Israel as the sole beneficiary of the “shattering earthquake” (as Nasrallah described it) that was Al-Hariri’s assassination. Nasrallah said that Israel has the “wiretapping devices, aerial and field surveillance in addition to logistic support to carry out the assassination operation in the Lebanese interior.” Nasrallah said footage was intercepted from Israeli surveillance planes prior to Al-Hariri’s assassination.

The idea to have a team conducting a private investigation into the killing was, according to Nasrallah, inspired by the arrests of several Israeli spy rings in Lebanon starting April 2009. An in-depth reading of the confessions of the Israeli agents, explained Nasrallah, “gave us leads to work towards proving the possibility of Israel’s culpability in the crime, although this has been completely ruled out by the [STL] investigation committee,” he said.

The Lebanese opposition further argued that the inquiry has been weakened by the use of information based on Israeli-compromised communications systems, along with the testimony of false witnesses, a view rejected by others in power, leading the government Hizbullah is a member of to succumb to paralysis.

The future of the country seems to be hanging by a thread, awaiting Syrian-Saudi efforts to reach a settlement over the tribunal issue. Observers have been drawing doomsday scenarios once the indictments are released, even if “rogue elements” in Hizbullah stand accused. It is indeed difficult to predict the reactions of Lebanon’s different forces.

The situation has been further compounded by the disclosure of tens of Israeli spy rings across the country. Since April 2009, some 150 Israeli spies have been arrested by Lebanese army and intelligence officers.

Israel’s intelligence activities continued to suffer under the many counter-strikes of the Lebanese army. The communication sector was the target of Israel’s most active espionage ring, caught this year. Sharbel Qazi and Tarek Al-Rabaa, who held senior positions in Alfa, one of the country’s two cell phone networks, were perhaps the two most important agents uncovered in the 18-month crackdown on Israel’s sleeping cells in Lebanon.

In March, a Lebanese military judge filed a case against four on charges of collaborating with Israel. The suspects had reportedly been giving information on military sites, civilians and Hizbullah officials. More than 20 people have since been indicted and could face the death penalty for treason. Towards the end of the year another major breakthrough took place when the Lebanese army – tipped off by Hizbullah – managed to discover and dismantle Israeli spy networks planted in Lebanon’s Al-Barouk mountain and Jabal Sneein areas.

The extended hunt for Israeli agents in Lebanon has been described as one of Israel’s worst ever intelligence setbacks. Lebanese security officials believe the arrests have seriously disrupted Israeli intelligence operations in the country. The hunt also revealed how the network was spreading wider.

Hizbullah and its leadership have been the primary target of most of the Israeli espionage rings. Investigations show how the majority of informants admitted to having played key roles in identifying Hizbullah targets bombed during Israel’s 2006 war against Lebanon. The arrests so far have surely dealt a serious blow to Israel at a time when it is making threats of waging another war against Lebanon.

Towards the end of May fears were growing of another war after Israel made repeated allegations of a transfer of Scud missiles and other advanced weapons from Syria to Hizbullah. The Israeli claims were parroted by U.S. officials repeatedly, without evidence provided to support them.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates in a press conference with his Israeli counterpart claimed that Hizbullah has “more missiles than many countries in the world.” Although several analysts dismissed prospects of an imminent war, others – including sources in Hizbullah – say that the decision to launch another war on Lebanon has been made and that it is simply a question of when, not if.

From al Ahram