Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad

WASHINGTON (IPS) — As anti-government protests in Syria
showed no sign of abating, the U.S. State Department Monday denied that it was
seeking the regime’s ouster.

“No, we are not working to undermine that
government,” said spokesman Mark Toner in response to a front-page report
in Monday’s Washington Post about secret U.S. financing of Syrian opposition
groups, including a London-based satellite television channel that has called
for the overthrow of the Baathist regime headed by President Bashar Al-Assad.

Assad “needs to address the legitimate aspirations of
his people,” Toner insisted, noting that Assad himself had spoken over the
weekend about implementing “the need to lift the state of emergency as
well as implement broader reforms, and certainly, we’re watching closely now to
see how those words translate into deed.”

Indeed, in a bid to contain the rapidly spreading protests
throughout Syria,  Assad Saturday
swore in a new government headed by former agriculture minister Abdel Safar and
pledged, among other measures, to repeal of the 48-year-old emergency law,
“within a week at most.”

People gather at Clock Square during a demonstration in the centre of the Syrian city of Homs April 18, 2011. Syrian forces fired shots at hundreds of protesters who had gathered overnight in Homs city in defiance of warning by the authorities to halt what they called an insurrection, a rights campaigner said on Tuesday. A member of the security police addressed the protesters at Clock Square through a loud speaker asking them to leave, and then the forces opened fire, said the human rights campaigner, who is in contact with protesters in the square. The placard reads: “Syrian media liar and a traitor”. REUTERS/Handout

In striking contrast to his previous public remarks, he also
offered condolences and prayers for the “martyrs” – estimated by
independent human rights groups at more than 200 – who were killed in anti-
government demonstrations since the protests began last month.

But the appearance Sunday of tens of thousands of
demonstrators demanding the regime’s ouster on the streets in towns and cities
throughout Syria, as well as renewed protests, particularly in Homs, where as
many as two dozen people were killed in protests Sunday evening, suggested to a
growing number of analysts here that Assad’s concessions may be both too little
and too late.

“It looks much less likely today than last week that
he’s going to be able to either tamp down or stomp out this uprising,”
said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma, who noted
that the explicit calls by the demonstrators for Assad’s ouster marked a new
stage in the confrontation.

“While the opposition may not be able to take over the
state, if it can keep mounting big demonstrations, there’s going to be no
foreign investment and no tourism, and the economy will founder, …and there
will be no future for the regime,” Landis, whose syriacomment.com blog is
widely read among regional specialists in Washington, told IPS.

Another Syria specialist, Bassam Haddad of George Mason
University, also suggested Syria was quickly reaching a tipping point that
would make it very difficult for Assad to regain the initiative.

“The regime can reverse the process, but it won’t, and
it seems we are now approaching a point of no return in terms of the size of
the demonstrations and the incapacity of the regime to make real changes that
would slow the (opposition’s) momentum,” Haddad told IPS.

“I think this will be the most decisive week in
determining where the uprising is headed,” he said, noting that the
attempted takeover of the central square by thousands of demonstrators in Homs
Monday “showed that the level of confidence of the protesters is rising
very quickly.”

Washington has generally responded cautiously to the
uprising. As in Egypt, it initially emphasized the importance of maintaining
stability in the country, even as it also appealed for the government to offer
democratic reforms and respond non-violently to the protests.

After a particularly bloody incident in Dera’a nearly two
weeks ago, President Barack Obama issued a written statement denouncing what he
called “the abhorrent violence committed against peaceful
protesters,” as well as “any use of violence by protesters.”

Opposition representatives who have met here with U.S.
officials and implored them to at least toughen its language against the regime
have expressed disappointment with Obama’s caution.

Backed by neo-conservative hawks who have long sought regime
change in Damascus, they have urged the administration to follow the same path
it trod in isolating Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, beginning with a U.N.
resolution referring Assad to the International Criminal Court and the
appointing of a special rapporteur to investigate alleged abuses by his
security forces.

Basing its story on recently released Wikileaks cables, the
Post reported Tuesday that the State Department had provided about six million
dollars to opposition groups since 2006, when U.S.-Syrian relations were at
their lowest ebb under former president George W. Bush.

Much of the money has reportedly been spent on Barada TV, a
satellite network run by Syrian expatriates allegedly linked to the Movement
for Justice and Development (MJD), described in one cable as a “moderate
Islamist organization that eschews any ideological agenda aside from ending the
Assad regime through democratic reform.”

Despite Obama’s official policy of engaging Damascus, Barada
TV began broadcasting in April 2009 and recently ramped up its operations and
now broadcasts 24 hours a day, although various sources said it was virtually
unknown within Syria.

In his remarks Tuesday, Toner insisted that U.S. support for
Barada and civil-society groups in Syria was “no different” from
similar “democracy-promotion” programs it supports in other countries
around the world. “What’s different … in this situation is that the Syrian
government perceives this kind of assistance as a threat to its control over
the Syrian people,” he said. He also denied that the U.S. was providing
direct support for the MJD.

Nonetheless, the disclosures are likely to fuel charges by
the Assad regime that the protesters are “dupes” for “foreign
agents” working to promote chaos in Syria.

The administration and most independent experts here,
however, strongly disagree and are increasingly worried that chaos may indeed
result from the growing polarization between the government and the opposition.

Indeed, the administration’s reluctance to speak out more
strongly against the regime apparently stems from its doubts about the
opposition, doubts that are reportedly shared by its two closest regional
allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel, both of whom – at least until now – seem to
have preferred to keep “the enemy they know” rather than face the
uncertainty of a Syria without Assad.

That assessment has actually “emboldened the
regime,” according to Haddad. “They have known that the position of
the U.S., as well as Israel and Saudi Arabia, is pro-status quo in Syria,”
he said, although, as the opposition appears to have gained strength over the
last several days, Washington’s position may be changing.

“I frankly don’t think they have a clue (about what to
do),” Landis said of Washington’s current stance, given the mushrooming of
the opposition and the hardening of its demands. “If they’re saying, (Assad)
should not use violence, that means they should let the demonstrators overthrow
the government, because, at this point, he’s going to have to use violence in
order to put this down.”

Landis said he’s growing more worried about the reaction of
the Alawite minority – of which Assad is the leader and from which the top
ranks of the military and security forces are recruited – to the unrest and the
possibility that the conflict could take on a sectarian character.

That worry is shared by Haddad who noted “serious
reports that the latest demonstrations, especially in Homs, have a Salafi
Islamist component.” Salafis, who are Sunni Muslims, regard Alawites, who
constitute about 12 percent of the total population, as heretics.

“Syria is also home to Christian, Druze, and Shi’a
minorities – about 15 percent of the population – and they tend to support the
Alawite regime,” according to Mohammed Bazzi, a regional expert at the
Council on Foreign Relations. “Along with many secular Sunnis, these minorities
look to Assad as a source of stability, and they fear that his fall could
precipitate a civil war.”