The Middle East spring will take time to blossom and widen
its scope. Nation-building reformers must pay increased attention to two
important barriers to democracy: Overextended clerical power and tolerance for
gender inequality.

Initially, public protest achieved rapid results by ousting
the head of the state in Tunisia and then in Egypt. This initial success has
encouraged revolts in Libya, Bahrain, Yemen and Syria, not to mention other
less serious uprisings. However, after Tunisia and Egypt, the revolts have
lasted longer than expected and they are still active, bloody and inconclusive.
In the second cycle of rebellion, the national armies have sided with the
regimes against the protestors.

The challenge for Egypt and Tunisia is to rebuild the new
political system through a participatory process. These two countries could
provide a model of social change.

In Egypt, the military and the religious establishment have
dominated national policy since Mubarak was ousted; so far civil society groups
have only played a timid role in the new government. Secular reform groups are
struggling to compete with the Muslim Brotherhood movement for shaping the
future. If the Egyptian army and the religious establishment continue to
decelerate and dilute reform, the country will collapse again. A second
revolution will then follow, as fear of the ruling authority is a thing of the
past.

In Tunisia, on the other hand, the new government has been
relatively responsive to civil society and the lessons (responsible governance,
freedom and equality) of the revolution are clear to the army and the religious
establishment. It helps that Tunisia is more secular than Egypt.

It is less cumbersome to change structures and rulers than
to change ideas. It may not be hard to identify the dictator and demonstrate
for his removal. But it is not at all simple to acknowledge and remove
socio-religious barriers to democracy.

The Middle East spring should not only be concerned with the
removal of dictators and replacing them with democratically elected leaders. A
cornerstone of democracy is the extent to which minorities are protected and
afforded equal rights. Reform should focus on building political systems which
provide equal opportunity to all citizens, regardless of ethnicity, religious
affiliation or gender. A major unacknowledged barrier (the elephant in the
room) to these democratic ideals is the conservative religious establishment.

No society can go far in social development without
restricting the power of religious authorities, which are often self-serving
and biased against roles of women. Women are the largest and most significant
vulnerable group in the Middle East. Bringing democracy to the region cannot be
done without confronting a flawed patriarchal social order which is bent on
perpetuating gender inequality and preserving outmoded family legislation,
education and institutions.

In a free society, women have equal opportunity to men in
education, access to health services, jobs and political office. Religious
authorities should be encouraged to revise outmoded laws of personal statutes
regarding marriage, divorce, burial and inheritance. Moreover, adult citizens
should be allowed to choose and define their faith, interpret scripture,
convert to other religions, or to abandon faith if they choose to.

So far, no Middle East society has rebelled against
religious totalitarianism. The fear of criticizing religious authority is
deeper than the fear of criticizing political authority.

Religion is deeply rooted in the culture of the Middle East.
In this region, there are already three religious states, where the law of the
land is scripture-based: Iran, Saudi Arabia and Sudan. Moreover, in Lebanon,
Israel, Egypt and Bahrain, religious affiliation dominates political power distribution.

In different ways the politics of Syria and Israel are faith
biased: The Alawites, an ethno-religious community, rules much of Syria and
Israel considers itself a Jewish state. Religion plays a role in Israel’s
identity, its roots and alliance with the Evangelical right. Yet, both Syria
and Israel resent being labeled sectarian.

Even regional experts dodge the issue of religious
reform.  During the past decade,
United Nations scholars from the Arab world easily identified political
freedoms as one of three major societal deficits. The scholars were equally
frank when they declared marginalization of women to be the second development
deficit.  However, these scholars
failed to consider religious intolerance as an important social problem.
Instead, the vague concept of “knowledge deficit” was judged to be
the third root-cause of Arab stagnation. The scholars, then and now, have been
too timid in confronting the religious establishment as a source of limitless
taboos. Sexual and religious taboos, literalism in following scripture and hero
worship of spiritual authorities forcefully dampen the intellectual curiosity
of the Arab child and adult.

Visionary leadership and new legislation for the protection
of religious minorities and women are badly needed to stabilize the new regimes
in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere. If Tunisia and Egypt succeed in achieving
genuine transformation in governance and protection of minorities, the model
they would provide to the rest of the region would be too strong to resist.
However, if Egypt and Tunisia appear stuck on ideas of the past in their
post-revolutionary rebuilding, the ruling reactionary forces in Libya, Syria,
Yemen and Bahrain will gain momentum and frustrate the protesters.

A strong and democratic Egypt would limit Israel’s indulgent
and insensitive attitude toward the occupation. The Netanyahu government will
find it hard to preserve a bilateral peace partnership with a
regionally-backed, democratic Egypt.

Tourists and foreign investors will flood Egypt and Tunisia
if and when they find these two revolutionary countries to be stable, safe,
tolerant and friendly to minorities.

The extent to which Egypt
and Tunisia integrate tolerance and empowerment of women in nation building
will dramatically affect the rest of the region.