WASHINGTON (IPS) — Journalists, analysts, and policymakers
have struggled to separate truth from fiction as the political situation in
Syria steadily deteriorates. The lack of accurate, credible information has
mired the Syrian situation beneath a fog of war that has complicated the
world’s understanding of the regime, its opposition, and the realities behind
the uprising’s latest developments.

People raise a large Syrian flag along the al-Mezzeh Highway in Damascus in this handout photograph released by Syria’s national news agency SANA on June 15, 2011. The 2300-meter long and 18-meter wide flag was part of the “Raise with us the Biggest Syrian Flag” youth campaign to express national unity and to reject foreign interference in Syrian affairs. The 2300 meters was to represent the 23 million Syrians in Syria, according to organizers. REUTERS/Sana

As the uprising nears its fourth month, President Bashar
Al-Assad’s troops have continued to battle surging demonstrators across the
state, scrambling to ensure that protests remain outside of the pivotal central
cities of Aleppo and Damascus. The military crackdown, arrests, tortures, and
sieges have been accompanied by a state-wide media blackout, ensuring that news
organizations have highly limited resources within Syria.

Many news outlets, including most major Western news
organizations and prominent Arab stations like Al Jazeera and Al-Arabiyya, have
been highly reliant on amateur and unaffiliated inside sources, hastily
recorded mobile videos, or eyewitness accounts.

Though some such accounts have been pivotal in broadcasting
the government’s siege of Dara’a, or demonstrating the brutality of Syrian
troops against their own civilians, it has also led to a great deal of
confusion, obfuscation, and downright manipulation of facts, on both sides of
the political divide.

Last week, Syria’s Ambassador to France, Lamia Shakkur,
appeared to publicly resign on a French television show, in protest of the
brutal policies of her government. Speaking on France 24, Shakkur denounced the
“cycle of violence” and claimed to “recognize the legitimacy of
the people’s demands for more democracy and freedom.”

Reuters confirmed the resignation with an embassy source,
but, by the time the story had crossed the globe, a different television
station was invited to the embassy to hear Shakkur claim to have no knowledge
of the resignation and reiterate her support for the Assad regime.

An even more dramatic example centred on a popular blog
titled “A Gay Girl in Damascus,” ostensibly written by Amina Arraf, a
Syrian American lesbian living in Damascus. Amina’s updates on the ground in
Syria, and her reflections on the political situation, quickly became an
important source of information on daily life during the uprising in Syria.

The blog captured the world’s attention when a post by the
blog owner’s “cousin” claimed that Amina had been arrested by the
Syrian police and had disappeared.

News of the abduction spread quickly, and a number of media
outlets, politicians, and government agencies began to get involved, until the
revelation that “Amina Arraf” was in fact a 40-year-old U.S. citizen
from Georgia named Tom MacMaster.

MacMaster admitted to fabricating the identity of Amina
Arraf and apologized for having “compromised the safety of real
people” and for the ways in which he may “have helped lend credence
to the lies of the regime.”

The reaction to this revelation has been quick and furious,
particularly from supporters of the Syrian opposition who bemoaned the loss of
credibility MacMaster’s actions would doubtless create.

As’ad Abu-Khalil, professor at the University of California
at Stanislaus and owner of the popular Angry Arab News Service blog, complained
that “Macmaster damaged the efforts of well-meaning and sincere Syrian
dissidents” and argued that he “should not only apologize to the
readers of the blog: he owes a bigger apology to the people of the Middle East
and to gays and lesbians in the region.”

Disinformation has been emanating heavily from the Syrian
government and its supporters as well. A recent online exposé by Syrian
opposition members has identified a number of factual inaccuracies and outright
falsifications in the Saudi Arabian paper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, which used
pictures from a German research study to fabricate Syrian identities.

Beyond its deliberate campaigns of misinformation, the
actions of the Syrian regime itself remain veiled from public view. Speculation
abounds about the true political authority behind the crackdowns, with many
prominent analysts presuming that Bashar Al-Assad has been sidelined by
hardliners such as Muhammad Makhluf, father of wealthy businessman Rami
Makhluf, and Maher Al-Assad, brother of the president and commander of the
fearsome Republican Guard.

The nature and disposition of the opposition itself are also
cause for much speculation. Allegations of disproportionate influence have been
leveled at the Muslim Brotherhood, neighbouring states, expatriate Syrians, and
tribal leaders.

The competing accusations often overlap, as in last Friday’s
protests, dubbed the “Day of the Clans.” Abu-Khalil has speculated
that the role of tribal leaders in Friday’s protest had been buttressed by the
support of the Brotherhood, through financing from Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, the first large-scale army defections appear to
have taken place in Jisr Al-Shughour, a small northern city near the Turkish
border.

The Syrian government has claimed that “120 security
forces and civilians” were killed by “armed gangs”, but
eyewitness accounts claim that an army unit ordered to fire on protestors had
decided to join the opposition instead, prompting a large-scale invasion of the
district and forcing approximately 7,000 Syrians to flee across the border to
neighboring Turkey.

Violence has also spread to the province of Aleppo, the
country’s second biggest city. The neighboring province of Idlib is quickly
rising to be the next hot spot, and events in Jisr al-Shughour seem to have
convinced both sides that the creation of an armed rebel force may be a
possibility, though a distant one as yet.

Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma
and owner of the popular and well-respected blog Syria Comment, claims that the
ferocity of the Idlib crackdown is due to fear that “Damascus will do
everything it can to preclude the formation of a Benghazi, which would allow
foreign intelligence agencies and governments to begin arming and training a
rebel army, as happened in Libya.”

As the protests begin to creep toward more urban areas, many
eyes are on the main cities of Aleppo and Damascus, which had been largely
quiet since the beginning of the uprising. A number of commentators have noted
that the opposition cannot hope to win without the support of the major
metropolitan centres, which have been pivotal uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia,
Libya, Yemen, and Bahrain.

The absence of credible information has severely constrained
Washington’s response to the situation. In a White House conference call
earlier this morning, Middle East Advisor Steve Simon admitted that the
administration has “no idea how this thing is going to play out, but we’re
hoping that a process does begin” for political transformation.

The administration remains optimistic that the outcome will
be favorable. Simon added that a coalesced and credible opposition
“appears to be beginning”, and expressed a willingness to “work
with whatever opposition matures and whatever alternative government ultimately
replaces the current government.”