AMMAN – An eventual fall of Syria’s regime, followed by the rise of an Islamist government could create a quandary for Jordan, a small country that has strategic ties with its northern neighbor, analysts say.

Free Syrian Army fighters pose in front of a tank taken by defectors from the regular Syrian Army in Al Qusayr February 23, 2012.  REUTERS

At the same time, even if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime survives pro-democracy protests against his 11-year rule, relations between Amman and Damascus are unlikely to improve, at least in the short term.

“Jordan is caught between a rock and a hard place, whether the current Syrian regime stays or goes,” political analyst Mohammad Abu Rumman said.

“Decision makers here fear chaos in Syria if Assad’s regime falls. This chaos will have an impact on Jordan’s strategic and economic relations with Syria as well as security in the kingdom and the entire region.”

More than 65 percent of Jordan’s exports come through Syria, and many Jordanians in the north have relatives on the other side of the border as well as business trading in a variety of goods.Syrian Islamists sought refuge in Jordan in 1982 after a massacre in the northern city of Hama, where the army killed between 10,000 and 30,000 people.

“If the Syrian regime manages to stay in power, this would be bothersome to Jordan. Syria’s state media are already attacking Jordan, and relations between the two countries are not likely to be good in the short term,” Abu Rumman added.

In November, King Abdullah II became the first Arab leader to openly call for Assad to step down, prompting Assad loyalists to storm Amman’s embassy in Damascus and tear down the national flag.

Jordan  could eventually fall into the ‘Islamist Spring,’ and faces upheaval as it struggles to meet pressing popular demands for political change, economic reforms and an end to corruption.

The country is burdened with an external debt of $18 billion, more than 65 percent of gross domestic product, as well as the challenges of considerable unemployment and poverty.

Government figures are unavailable on Syrian refugees, but UN chief Ban Ki-moon said in Amman last month that the kingdom was hosting 2,500 Syrians. Independent estimates put the figure at more than 3,000. But local newspapers have quoted unnamed officials as saying around 78,000 Syrians have fled to neighboring Jordan since the start of protests in Syria.

Jordan’s powerful Muslim Brotherhood played down fears about the rise of Islamists, however. 

The Muslim Brotherhood and its political arm, the IAF, represent the main opposition in Jordan.

“If we accept democracy, we have to accept its outcome and results as well as the rule of people,” said Bani Rsheid, a senior IAF leader. 

To Islamist analyst Hassan Abu Hanieh, the Islamists have proved they are pragmatic.

“Mainstream Islamists are pragmatists. For example, if they come to power in Syria, I think they will seek coalition with other parties. They will have a key role but they will not seek to exclude others.

 – MEO