NEW YORK – If the U.S. government has its way, Americans
would cut their consumption of sugar and corn syrup by more than 2 million
tonnes a year, the latest blow for a sweetener industry facing an onslaught of
criticism over negative health effects.

The U.S. government on Thursday issued new dietary guidelines
that suggested for the first time that consumers limit their consumption of
added sweeteners at a specific level, less than 10 percent of a recommended
daily intake of about 2,000 calories. Currently the average American consumes
about 270 calories a day in the form of sweeteners, equal to about 13 percent,
the guidelines said.

With one teaspoon of sugar equal to approximately 15 calories, a
reduction equivalent to more than 60 calories worth of added sugars – over 20
percent fewer than the average American consumes today – would amount to some
2.2 million tonnes of primarily sugar and high-fructose corn syrup.

That figure may be conservative. The USDA estimates total
national sweetener demand by food and beverage manufacturers at around 19
million tonnes. On that basis, a reduction of a roughly 20-percent drop in
sugar calories consumed could amount to 3.7 million tonnes – small relative to
worldwide use of over 186 million tonnes, but still more than enough to meet
the entire needs of Egypt.

To be sure, many people including health advocates point out
that few Americans are expected to follow the new guidelines.

But even the suggestion of such a significant decline is bad
news for an industry engulfed in a “war on sugar” as health advocates
blame sweeteners for a national obesity crisis. And a deeper decline in demand
from the one of the world’s top five users could weigh on global sugar prices
that have fallen by half in five years.

That would be a major blow not just for soda companies and candy
makers, but for sugar and corn companies like privately held ASR Group – the
maker of Domino Sugar – Archer Daniels Midland Co and Cargill Inc battling in
an already competitive sweetener market.

Americans have been buying markedly less sugar amid the rising
health worries. While total demand for sweeteners is rising, per capita
consumption is on the decline.

The Sugar Association, which represents sugar companies
including ASR and Louis Dreyfus Commodities’ Imperial Sugar Co, criticized the
guidelines, saying they were based on “weak science.” A spokesman for
the Corn Refiners Association said the group intended to review the document
with scientific authorities.

Cargill “continues to regularly work with many of its food
customers to develop ways to reduce the amount of added sugars in food and
beverages,” a company spokesperson said. Cargill and others have moved
into no- and low-calorie sweetener alternatives like stevia.

The American Beverage Association said reducing beverage
calories is a “common goal,” noting its members have been cutting
product sizes.

Even
so, the move is expected to lay groundwork for the U.S. government’s initiative
to add more information on sugars on food labels.