DETROIT — As the election draws near, both presidential candidates have put an emphasis on Michigan, expected to be a tight contest on November 8.
Clinton is slated to rally Democrats in Detroit, where a large turnout of Black voters have long been crucial to success, following up on a last-minute meeting by former President Bill Clinton with Black ministers on Wednesday night.
African American turnout is more crucial than ever now for Clinton. In states such as North Carolina, early voter turnout among African Americans hit a sharp decline.
Clinton’s campaign has noted that both Michigan and Pennsylvania do not have in-person early voting, requiring them to intensify turnout efforts in the days leading up to Tuesday’s election.
But the late focus on Michigan, which has not received extensive attention from Clinton during the campaign, underscored Democratic concerns that Trump was gaining in a state that hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
In Detroit, Bill Clinton met privately with Black ministers, community leaders, members of the state’s congressional delegation and the city’s Democratic mayor, Mike Duggan, “to galvanize support for Hillary and Democrats up and down the ballot,” Clinton’s campaign said.
Hillary Clinton’s trip to Michigan will be the latest by a Democratic nominee since 2004, when John Kerry visited Detroit the day before the election. Kerry won the state by 3 percentage points. In his two campaigns, President Obama easily carried Michigan, by 16 points in 2008 and nearly 10 points in 2012.
Trailing in several battleground states, Trump’s outlook has improved since FBI Director James Comey’s shocking announcement that the bureau was looking into emails that may be related to the investigation into Clinton’s use of a private server.
But Trump seems to already have a base in Michigan. For months, he has routinely made appearances in the state to rally voters in Grand Rapids and the Metro Detroit area. His children, Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump, also rallied voters in the state this week. While he isn’t expected to get any traction among Detroit’s Black voters–he is likely to nab a large percentage of White votes, especially in many parts of Wayne, Oakland and Macomb Counties.
It is uncertain if Arab American voters in Michigan will turn out to support Clinton. While her campaign has made numerous attempts to reach out to the community, the enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate is not as strong as it was when Obama ran for office. Arab American voters also tipped the scales in favor of Bernie Sanders earlier this year. Sanders made a stop in Dearborn last month on behalf of Clinton’s campaign to energize voters.
In order to overtake Clinton, Trump would need to win several battleground states if he fails to pick up a blue-collar state like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Combined, those three states account for 46 electoral votes.
But if Trump managed to win one of these states, it opens more pathways for him to overtake Clinton, who would need to rely more heavily on swing states.
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