Donald Trump would soundly defeat Joe Biden in Michigan — but the state’s Democratic governor would fare much better against Trump in a hypothetical matchup, a new poll showed.
The poll, conducted by the Michigan-based Glengariff Group from Jan. 2 to Jan. 6, has the former president beating Biden by 8 points — 47 to 39 percent — among likely voters in the state.
Other recent state and national polls have found Trump with a similar strong lead over Biden.
In a hypothetical head-to-head against Gov. Whitmer, Trump’s lead did not hold up. He trailed the 52-year-old Whitmer by 4 percentage points, 45 to 49 percent. The finding underscores the pitfalls for Democrats of fielding an unpopular 81-year-old incumbent president as their nominee.
The poll surveyed 600 likely general election voters in Michigan and had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. It was conducted for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV.
California governor Gavin Newsom also performed better than Biden in a hypothetical matchup with Trump, but still trailed the former president. Forty percent of respondents said they would vote for Newsom compared to 45 percent for Trump.
“The margins are a little more than I would expect, but I’m not shocked by it in some ways,” said Paul Rozycki, political analyst. “What is surprising is that the criminal charges seem to have had almost no effect, almost seemingly boosting Trump’s support among his fellow supporters. I think the real key is whether or not he can go beyond that core in November.”
“If I were a Democrat in Michigan, I would be breaking the emergency fire alarms in the White House and demanding to know what the plan is for Michigan,” Richard Czuba, founder of Glengariff Group, told the News. “Because these numbers are very bad for any incumbent of any party.”
Though, Biden remains under the scope of Americans as the war in the Middle East intensifies.
“Foreign policy rarely is a big issue, but it’s going to matter,” Rozycki said. “Particularly if things turn sour in the Middle East a lot that could hurt him in Michigan more than any other state because of the large Arab American population we have here in this state.”
Michigan has been a key battleground state for elections in recent years and Rozycki sees that standing true for this presidential election as well.
“Will Biden make any kind of mistakes that underline his age? That could be a factor,” Rozycki said. “Or will Trump make some statements that will offend even more people than he has already? I think those will be kind of key things as we go towards the general campaign, assuming by the way that they’re both the nominees of their party.”
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