The ongoing war in Gaza has turned historical Arab American support for Democratic candidates on its head, with 46 percent of likely voters polled by the Arab American Institute saying they would support former President Trump, while 42 percent said they would back Vice President Harris.

Normally, Democrats have a 2-to-1 advantage among Arab Americans in elections. Wednesday’s poll found Harris is running 18 points behind the Arab American support for President Biden in the 2020 election, when 6 in 10 Arab Americans voted for the Democrat. Trump’s lead over Harris, however, is within the margin of error of the poll, which is 4.5 points.

In the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, Arab American support for Democrats cratered, falling from 40 percent identifying as Democrats in April 2023 to 23 percent saying they were Democrats last October. Less than 1 in 5 Arab Americans polled said they would vote for Biden last October.

Since then, the party has somewhat regained its footing, with 38 percent of Arab Americans now identifying as Democrats and 42 percent saying they would vote for Harris.

Of those polled, 12 percent said they would vote for a third party, which is in contrast to a September poll from the Council on American-Islamic Relations showing that 29.4 percent supported Harris while 29.1 percent supported Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein.

“While some headlines based on a few organizational member surveys have suggested a third-party candidate could garner a plurality of the Arab American vote, this nationwide poll of voters suggests otherwise,” the Arab American Institute wrote in the poll. “All the third-party candidates combined receive just 12 percent of the Arab American vote. Instead, it’s Trump who is the beneficiary of the community’s anger and despair over the Biden administration’s failure to prevent the unfolding genocide in Gaza.”

Both campaigns have increased their efforts to win over these voters. Harris has appointed an Arab American outreach director, while Trump’s efforts have been led by Massad Boulos, the father of Tiffany Trump’s husband.

Georgia state Rep. Ruwa Romman, a Palestinian American who was floated as a potential Palestinian speaker at the Democratic National Convention, said the Trump campaign has stepped up efforts of running ads in Arab and Muslim areas of Michigan and telling voters Harris does not care about them.

Republicans have steadily increased their support in the Arab American community since April 2023. That month, 23 percent of Arab Americans identified themselves as Republicans. In October 2023, 32 percent said they were Republicans. In Wednesday’s poll, 38 percent — the same number as Democrats — said they were Republican.

There are more than 200,000 Arab Americans in Michigan and close to 100,000 Arab Americans in Georgia, both critical battleground states that Democrats won by tens of thousands of votes in 2020. Additionally, tens of thousands of voters in Michigan voted uncommitted during this year’s Democratic primary to register their anger with Biden and Democrats over their support for Israel.

The poll found that if Harris demanded an immediate cease-fire, unimpeded humanitarian aid to Gaza and threatened to withhold arms shipments to Israel, her vote share among Arab Americans would jump up to 60 percent, capturing one-third of Trump voters and “wiping out” the votes that might be cast for third parties.

If Trump were to make a similar demand, he would win the votes of 55 percent of those polled.

Turnout among Arab Americans might also be lower during this election cycle. Traditionally, Arab American turnout has been in the 80 percent range. This time around, only 63 percent said they were enthusiastic about voting.

The Arab American Institute polled 500 Arab American voters.

The situation in Gaza is a significant factor shaping Arab American votes. The ongoing conflict and the U.S. administration’s handling of it have deeply influenced voter sentiment, with many Arab Americans viewing the conflict as a critical issue in determining their support. According to polls, up to 81 percent of Arab Americans say that Gaza impacts their vote, with calls for a ceasefire and humanitarian aid to Palestinians being key demands. The way candidates address the Gaza conflict could sway votes between them, particularly in battleground states.