The return of former President Trump to the White House in January has raised growing concerns over his plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrants from the United States. Immigration advocates have sounded the alarm, warning of social and economic repercussions across various states, including Michigan.

According to the Pew Research Center, the number of undocumented immigrants in Michigan is estimated to be between 75,000 and 175,000. The Migration Policy Institute places the figure at approximately 91,000, with about half originating from Mexico and Central American countries. Additionally, 28,000 are from Asian countries — primarily India and China — 10,000 are from Europe, Oceania and Canada, and the remainder hail from Africa and South America. Immigrants from Arab countries constitute a very small percentage.

Economic implications

Beyond the social consequences affecting tens of thousands of families, Michigan faces a distinct challenge if Trump’s plan is implemented. Immigration advocates argue that mass deportations would not only disrupt the social fabric these individuals have built in the U.S., but also threaten the labor force and economy, particularly by increasing the costs of agricultural and food products.

Although Michigan does not have as many undocumented immigrants compared to states like California, Texas or New York, its agricultural sector heavily relies on seasonal migrant workers. A significant portion of these workers are undocumented immigrants who now face potential detention and deportation under Trump’s administration.

In Michigan, tens of thousands of migrant workers and their families make substantial contributions to the agriculture and food industries, according to the state’s Department of Health and Human Services. Agriculture is Michigan’s second-largest industry, contributing approximately $125 billion annually to the state’s economy and employing nearly one million people — about 25 percent of the state’s workforce — according to the Michigan Farm Bureau.

Unlike crops like wheat and corn, many of Michigan’s staple products require handpicking due to the lack of alternative harvesting technologies. This makes it necessary for farmers to recruit migrant workers, who arrive during harvest seasons for asparagus, strawberries, blueberries and other fruits and vegetables that Michigan is known for.

Susan E. Reed, director of the Michigan Immigrant Rights Center, stated that approximately 49,000 seasonal migrant agricultural workers are employed in Michigan each year. Including their accompanying family members, this number approaches 100,000 migrants.

Workers place the berries directly into the plastic clamshell packages that shoppers will find in stores.

Potential raids

Reed anticipates that farm and food processing facility owners may face raids targeting the legal status of their workers. She noted that such fears will likely drive up food prices as companies struggle to fill the positions left vacant by the absence of cheap labor.

Undocumented immigrants form the backbone of low-wage agricultural labor for crop harvesting in Michigan and across the United States. A U.S. Department of Labor report in 2023, based on interviews with nearly 2,600 migrant workers who harvested crops between 2020 and 2022, found that only 58 percent were authorized to work in the U.S.

Reed warned that mass deportations “would have devastating effects on Michigan’s second-largest economic sector”, explaining that even legal workers might fear staying in farm camps, which could be subject to police raids “on any given night.” This, she said, would create a negative climate that would ultimately result in higher food costs as producers face additional expenses, which will inevitably be passed on to consumers.

She also explained that mass deportations — regardless of whether they begin in Michigan — could trigger an economic shockwave in the already labor-strapped agricultural sector.

Steven Hubbard, a representative of the American Immigration Council in Washington, a nonprofit immigration advocacy group, echoed these concerns. He emphasized that rising costs would primarily burden consumers.

“We’ll either have to import food from other countries or farmers will need to pay more to workers,” he said. “This will lead to higher costs for products that cannot be harvested by machines, like strawberries.”

“Many people who voted for Trump were driven by the high cost of groceries and the difficulty of finding affordable housing, but they will learn the hard way just how much our economy depends on immigrants coming to this country,” said Stephanie J. Nawyn an associate professor in the Department of Sociology at Michigan State University, specializing in migration and migrant labor issues

The deportation plan

In line with his campaign promises to crack down on illegal immigration, Trump has appointed a staunch immigration hardliner, Tom Homan, the former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), to oversee border security in his upcoming administration beginning January 20.

Trump announced Homan’s appointment on his Truth Social platform, stating, “I am pleased to announce that former ICE Director and strong border enforcer Tom Homan will join the Trump administration as the border security chief”, referring to him as the “border czar.”

Immigration has been a top priority for Trump, who has vowed to shut down the borders and carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.

Although the logistics of the mass deportation plan remain unclear, Homan has already expressed his intent to fulfill Trump’s pledge by initially targeting undocumented immigrants who pose a threat to public safety. This would be done with or without the cooperation of local law enforcement.

“The military will not be collecting and detaining immigrants unlawfully in the country,” Homan clarified. Instead, ICE will carry out Trump’s plans “in a humane manner.”

“It will be a targeted, well-planned operation managed by ICE officers,” Homan added. “When the process begins, we will know who we are looking for and where they will be, and it will be done humanely.”

Most estimates suggest there are between 11 and 13 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has estimated that the mass deportation plan could remove about one million people annually.

However, Trump’s deportation plan faces financial, logistical and legal challenges. The American Immigration Council estimates that deporting 13 million undocumented immigrants would cost approximately $88 billion annually over a decade.

Even if Trump manages to fund his plan, it remains uncertain whether countries would accept their deported citizens. Additionally, Trump may face legal challenges hindering his ability to implement this campaign promise.

Undocumented Arab immigrants

There is no recent official data tracking the percentage of Arab undocumented immigrants in the U.S. However, estimates from the Migration Policy Institute indicate that about 45,000 undocumented immigrants from the Middle East and North Africa were living in the U.S. as of 2019.

In fall 2023, Fox News revealed internal data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) indicating that thousands of Arabs had entered the U.S. illegally through the Mexican border.

The Fox News report detailed that among these individuals were 15,594 migrants from Mauritania, 3,153 from Egypt, 538 from Syria, 164 from Lebanon, 185 from Jordan, 139 from Yemen and 123 from Iraq.