The poll, conducted between August 25-27 in partnership with the political consulting firm Molitico, surveyed 1,159 Muslim American voters from across the country, focusing on six swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. The sample included all ethnic and racial groups among American Muslims, with 620 voters of Arab descent.

The national poll revealed a split among Muslim voters in the U.S. regarding presidential candidates, with most Muslim voters considering the Israeli war on Gaza their top priority. According to community political activists, Stein’s rise in popularity among Muslim voters comes amid dissatisfaction with both Harris and Trump, who are perceived as pro-Israel.

OVERALL MUSLIM VOTER PREFERENCES FOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

“Jill Stein is polling very strongly among former Democratic and independent voters, and we also see that she has distanced herself from some traditional Republican voters,” said Robert McCaw, CAIR’s director of government affairs.

However, Stein’s lead in Michigan did not extend to all the states surveyed. Harris still leads Stein in Georgia (43 percent vs. 17 percent), Nevada (26 percent vs. 13 percent) and Pennsylvania (37 percent vs. 25 percent). Stein, however, leads in Wisconsin (44 percent vs. 39 percent for Harris) and Arizona (35 percent vs. 29 percent).

According to the poll, Trump received 15 percent in Arizona, 14 percent in Georgia, 8 percent in both Pennsylvania and Georgia and 27 percent in Nevada, where he led Harris by one point.

It’s worth noting that Muslim voters overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates in the last two decades of U.S. presidential elections. However, President Biden’s administration’s support for Israel’s war on Gaza has pushed many away from the Democratic Party, especially as Harris is part of the current administration.

MUSLIM VOTER PREFERENCES BY SPECIFIC BATTLEGROUND STATES

In contrast, Stein, a fierce critic of Israel, has visited Michigan multiple times since announcing her candidacy, particularly Dearborn, which she visited again last week to speak at the national conference of the Arab American Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC), alongside independent presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West, who ranked fourth in the CAIR poll with 4 percent of Muslim American votes in Michigan and 3 percent across the six states.

Nationally, Harris narrowly leads Stein with 29.4 percent versus 29.1 percent. Meanwhile, 11.2 percent plan to vote for Trump, 4.2 percent for West, less than 1 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and 16.5 percent are undecided.

Notably, more than a quarter of CAIR’s Michigan poll respondents said they were either undecided (21 percent) or would not vote (8 percent) in the November elections. Across the six states, 17 percent were undecided and 6 percent said they would boycott the election.

As the 2024 general election approaches, the estimated 2.5 million Muslim voters in America could play a decisive role in determining the next U.S. president, especially in swing states.

For more information about the CAIR poll, visit shorturl.at/VmhRs.