CAIRO (IPS) — In recent months, Washington has tried hard to convince Arab leaders of the threat to the Middle East posed by Iranian regional ambitions. Nevertheless, several recent visits to Egypt by top-level Iranian officials suggest that Cairo, despite U.S. objections, may be close to restoring diplomatic ties — severed for almost 30 years — with Tehran. “There’s been a lot of recent activity between Egypt and Iran,” Abdel-Halim Kandil, political analyst and former editor-in-chief of opposition weekly al-Karama, told IPS. “In a sense, Iran has indirectly vanquished the U.S. in the region by winning over a number of Arab capitals diplomatically.” During his recent Middle East tour, U.S. President George W. Bush appealed to Washington’s Arab allies to confront what he described as Iran’s destabilizing influence. “Iran’s actions threaten the security of nations everywhere,” Bush said during a Jan. 13 stopover in the United Arab Emirates. “So the U.S. is strengthening our longstanding security commitments with our friends in the Gulf and rallying friends around the world to confront this danger.” Cairo has not had official relations with Tehran since 1979, when the nascent Islamic Republic severed ties in response to Egypt’s signing of the Camp David peace agreement with Israel. Relations remained hostile through much of the 1980s, when Cairo supported Saddam Hussein’s Iraq against revolutionary Iran in a long war of attrition. In the years since, Egypt’s closeness to Washington — coupled with the latter’s efforts to isolate Iran — has meant a continued frostiness of relations between Cairo and Tehran. Nevertheless, a number of groundbreaking visits to Egypt by top-level Iranian officials have recently prompted speculation that restoration of ties could be in the offing. In early December, Iranian Industry Minister Ali Akbar Mehrabian met Egyptian counterpart Rachid Mohamed Rachid, with whom he discussed the prospects for bilateral economic cooperation. According to press reports, the two ministers laid down the outlines of an agreement by which Egypt would eventually import some 200,000 tons of wheat from Iran. Rachid, for his part, appeared to welcome the notion of increased trade and industrial cooperation. “The coming period will see the start of a new phase of economic relations between Egypt and Iran,” he said in a statement. Later that month, Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s National Security Council, also visited Cairo. Although the six-day trip was billed as a “personal visit,” Larijani’s itinerary included meetings with several top-level officials, including Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul-Gheit; head of Egyptian General Intelligence Omar Suleiman; and secretary-general of the Cairo-based Arab League Amr Moussa.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Most recently, in late January, Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Gholam Ali Adel came to Cairo to participate in a conference for parliamentary speakers organized by the Organization of Islamic Countries. Adel’s visit represented the first time for a senior Iranian parliamentary official to visit Egypt since the 1970s. According to many independent Egyptian observers, the restoration of relations with Iran — and the resultant scope for economic cooperation — would constitute an enormous boon for Egypt. “Re-establishing ties would certainly be in Egypt’s interest,” said Kandil. “Given the huge potential for trade cooperation, there would no doubt be numerous economic benefits.” But he went on to dismiss the possibility of imminent rapprochement, given Cairo’s traditional compliance with U.S. policy directives. “When it comes to Iran, Egypt — more than any other Arab country — has followed the U.S. lead,” said Kandil. “I expect a gradual improvement in Egypt-Iran relations, but no full restoration of diplomatic ties in the short-term future.” “In the absence of U.S. approval,” he said, “Cairo will continue to waiver on the issue.” There have been a number of false starts before. In May of last year, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad explicitly stated his country’s readiness to re-establish diplomatic relations with Egypt. “If the Egyptian government was willing, we would open our embassy in Cairo the same day,” the Iranian president said. While Ahmedinejad’s comments drew heated conjecture that official rapprochement was around the corner, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry — echoing the Bush administration’s anti-Iran rhetoric — soon poured cold water on the notion. “The spread of Iranian influence in Iraq threatens Arab and Egyptian national security,” Aboul-Gheit said in June. “This obliges Cairo to curb its developing relationship with Iran.” Local political commentators, therefore, remain cautious in outlook. “Analysts have frequently predicted rapprochement,” Gamal Zahran, political science professor at Suez Canal University and independent MP, told IPS. “But these expectations have always been thwarted by suspected pressure from Washington.” “Tehran obviously wants to re-establish ties,” Zahran added. “But Cairo — whose independent foreign policymaking is compromised by its close association with the U.S. — has yet to reciprocate.” Notably, signs of budding Arab-Iranian rapprochement have not been limited to Egypt. In early December, Ahmedinejad was invited to attend a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit — a first for an Iranian head of state — held in Qatar. “It seems a new chapter has been opened in the relations between the Persian and the Gulf States,” Ahmedinejad told the conference. Days later, at a regional summit in Bahrain, representatives from a number of Arab countries bluntly declared their opposition to a would-be U.S. military strike against Iran. “We want the military factor to be eliminated,” GCC Secretary-General Abdul-Rahman al-Attiya was quoted as saying. According to Kandil, the notable shift in Arab attitudes towards Iran can be attributed chiefly to Washington’s massive policy failures in Iraq. “For years, Washington’s Arab allies in the region have kept Iran at arm’s length to appease the U.S.,” he said. “But in the wake of the debacle in Iraq, many of them are reconsidering this policy.”