On Feb. 14, supporters of the March 14th anti-Syrian movement thronged in time-honored tradition to Martyrs Square in downtown Beirut to commemorate the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri four years ago — a show of strength that has become a fixture of Lebanese politics.

Saad Hariri at a Beirut rally marking the anniversary of the assassination of his father, Rafik Hariri. Marwan Naamani/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Two days later, a somber mass gathered in the southern suburbs to mourn the killing last year of Hizbullah military commander Imad Mughniyeh and listen to the Shi’a group’s charismatic leader, Hassan Nasrallah. A fickle February sun shone on the former; rain drenched the latter. But otherwise the two camps looked to be on an equal footing four months before the general elections scheduled for June.
With that election widely expected to be a close call, both sides struck a balance between appealing to polarized voters and escalating tensions. Neither side appears — currently — to see street-fighting and sectarian strife as working in their interests. More importantly, the pattern of Arab reconciliation started at the Kuwait summit appears to be gaining ground. Saudi intelligence head Prince Moqren bin Abdel-Aziz visited Damascus last week, sign of a thaw or cautious rapprochement in relations between the so-called moderate Arab axis led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt and the pro-resistance camp, including Syria. Neither side seems keen to stir up the other.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah supporters wave flags in Beirut suburbs, May 26, 2008. REUTERS/ Sharif Karim

So even the death of Lutfi Zeineddine, a young demonstrator on his way back from the Hariri commemoration, met a measured response from most leaders. Scores of opposition supporters, many apparently from the Shi’a Amal group, which is led by Nabih Berri and allied to Hizbullah, had surged onto a couple of main roads leading south from Martyrs Square as flag-wielding Al-Hariri supporters walked home. Youths brandishing sticks and throwing stones fought until the army intervened and separated the two sides. Hizbullah condemned the incident and disassociated itself from it.
Walid Jumblatt, Druze leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, which Zeineddine supported, was also unusually conciliatory, placing confidence in the Lebanese authorities to see that justice was done and stressing that Lebanon had “no enemy but Israel.” Jumblatt was one of the shrillest critics of Syria after Al-Hariri’s assassination, which 14 March and many in the West blame on Damascus.

Nasrallah’s speech trod the balance carefully, even when it came to Israel. Answering speculation that his guerrillas have now acquired air-defense weapons, Nasrallah was coy: “I will not confirm or deny, but I care to stress that the resistance has the right to possess such weapons,” he said. “Not only do we have the right to possess anti-air defense weapons but we also have the right to use such weapons whenever necessary.” A slight, knowing smile was enough to elicit cheers from the crowd.

Many observers took that as a sign that Mughniyeh’s death might be avenged by an attack on one of the Israeli planes that daily violate Lebanese airspace in the south. Nasrallah said last year that retaliation against Israel, which welcomed the killing but has never claimed responsibility, was a matter of “not if, but when.”

But since Hizbullah briefly seized control of west Beirut and other areas after the government challenged its communications network and security arrangements last May, tensions within Lebanon have forced the group to be particularly wary of drawing an Israeli strike.

“Nasrallah was registering an initial stance, registering the right to hold these weapons,” said Georges Nassif, a columnist for the independent, pro-government newspaper An-Nahar. “But it’s a very general stance. He’s doing what the Israelis do. They have never admitted they have nuclear weapons — what the Americans call ‘strategic ambiguity’ — and this is the same thing.”

Nasrallah turned down the heat blasted at “moderate” Arab leaders of late, particularly during Israel’s war on Gaza, welcoming Syrian-Saudi steps towards reconciliation. “For the first time in a while, Nasrallah didn’t criticize the moderate axis, which is another sign of the regional calm,” Nassif said.

Internally, Nasrallah was conciliatory, stressing the oft-evoked theme of consensus. “If we win the elections, we will ask the parliamentary minority to join the government,” he said. “But if they insist on refusing to join, our team will form a government on its own and govern with a national perspective.”

That was a response to Sunni anti-Syrian Saad Al-Hariri’s recent comments, reiterated at his father’s commemoration Saturday, to the effect that if the opposition won the elections he would not join the subsequent government.

It is still too early to say whether Al-Hariri would in practice stay out of such a government, Nassif said. “It’s political pressure as part of the electoral campaign; provocative speech aimed at the supporters of Al-Hariri or the loyalists in general,” he said. “But it’s still early and so much will change between now and the elections.”

Nassif said Al-Hariri’s stance could reflect a lack of confidence in a certain victory for 14 March. “There’s a certain fear concerning the electoral results. It’s clear that neither side will win a major victory. It’ll be a matter of two or three seats. Neither side is particularly confident,” he said.

Paul Salem, head of the Carnegie Endowment in Beirut, said he believed 14 March was bouncing back after a series of defeats starting last May. “Things are looking quite good for 14 March. They’re also racking up their election machines across the country and are able to mobilize more,” he said. “This demonstration encouraged its supporters to feel that 14 March is not defeated: if it wins the election then that’s a new reality.”

Salem notes, nonetheless, that Hizbullah will insist on having its “blocking third,” which is aimed at protecting its weapons arsenal to fight Israel and vetoing any government challenge to it. Al-Hariri’s stance is to show that he rejects another “unity” government, but he has little power to block it, given overwhelming support from the Shi’a for Hizbullah and Amal, along with Hizbullah’s military strength.

“Fundamentally, Nasrallah wants to be left alone, so he’s being fairly calm and conciliatory internally,” Salem said. “He’s not actually that keen to win the elections, because that would be too much responsibility and he already has what he wants.”