BEIRUT — Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri paid a state visit to Iran for the first time this week, the latest in a series of diplomatic exchanges that highlighted shifting balances within Lebanon and the region. Al-Hariri’s trip followed Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s touchdown in Beirut a few days before. These visits demonstrate the new power of Turkey and Iran on the regional and Lebanese arenas. But most hopes remain pinned on the Syrian-Saudi efforts as the best chance of fortifying Lebanon against strife if and when the Special Tribunal for Lebanon issues its expected indictment of Hizbullah members.

Iran’s main message for Al-Hariri appears to be that he must cooperate closely with Hizbullah in the challenging times ahead. Khamenei hinted at this after his meeting with Al-Hariri, in which he said Al-Hariri’s relations with Hizbullah leaders were good. “These relationships should become stronger than before,” Khamenei was quoted as telling Hariri. “As long as the Zionist regime exists, Lebanon will need resistance.” The STL crisis has widened the rift between Hizbullah’s alliance and that of the pro-Western camp, which backs the tribunal.

Al-Hariri’s trip follows Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s first visit to Lebanon in October, when he riled critics by visiting the southern border with Israel. In the end, though, Ahmadinejad avoided embarrassing his official hosts. Despite the rock-star reception he received at Hizbullah- organized rallies in the south and the southern suburbs of Beirut, his rhetoric surprised many with its moderation and emphasis on Lebanese unity and stability. So although Al-Hariri and his allies have railed against Iran, their political opponent Hizbullah’s main backer, as much as Syria in the past few years, there was little negative reaction to the continued rapprochement with Tehran. Al-Hariri several months ago publicly retracted his accusation that Syria killed his father.

“Al-Hariri’s visit to Iran shows the new configuration in the region: Lebanon is the mirror that reflects that balance,” said Michel Nawfal, Iran expert and foreign editor of the Al-Hariri-owned newspaper, Al-Mustaqbal (Future). “There can be no more putting our heads in the sand and saying we don’t want to talk to Iran. The roles of Iran and Turkey in Lebanon have been consecrated; while there’s no Arab project and the United States has retreated.”

Nawfal said Iranian officials were attaching importance to the Al-Hariri visit. As well as Ahmadinejad and other officials, he met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Al-Hariri is supported by Western states and Saudi Arabia, which vies with Tehran for regional influence. But as Iran seeks to develop regional official allies, in parallel with its support for resistance groups such as Hizbullah and Hamas, Al-Hariri has his uses. “Al-Hariri takes with him his representation of the Sunni street and therefore the mainstream Arab environment, which Iran needs to boost its regional cover and legitimacy,” Nawfal said.

Iran’s main message for Al-Hariri appears to be that he must cooperate closely with Hizbullah in the challenging times ahead. Khamenei hinted at this after his meeting with Al-Hariri, in which he said Al-Hariri’s relations with Hizbullah leaders were good. “These relationships should become stronger than before,” Khamenei was quoted as telling Hariri. “As long as the Zionist regime exists, Lebanon will need resistance.” The STL crisis has widened the rift between Hizbullah’s alliance and that of the pro-Western camp, which backs the tribunal.

Internal divisions when the tribunal charges are issued would put Hizbullah in a tight corner. The Shi’a military and political group and its backers in Tehran and Damascus want Al-Hariri to drop Lebanon’s official support for the Special Tribunal into his father’s killing and to reject in advance any charges against Hizbullah members. Many fear that the implication of Hizbullah in the killing of Sunni leader Al-Hariri could cause simmering Sunni-Shi’a tensions in Lebanon to boil over. The diplomacy of the past few months between Syria and Saudi Arabia, also former foes, is believed to focus on the mechanics and timing of such a rejection. Hizbullah’s campaign against the court, which it condemns as an Israeli plot, also centers on trying the “false witnesses”; those who approached the UN investigative commission with testimony they later retracted.

“Al-Hariri, for his part, wants Iranian assurances that Hizbullah’s weapons won’t be used internally if the indictments are as expected,” Nawfal said. “And having better relations with Iran will have a positive effect on his dealings with Hizbullah, as well as reducing the pressure domestically.”

The symbolism of Al-Hariri’s visit as head of a national unity government that also includes Hizbullah is important, said Karim Makdisi, associate director of the American University of Beirut’s Issam Fares Institute. “But this is more about him buying time and leverage for internal purposes — he probably feels that this gives him extra credit and helps deflect any criticism that might come from Hizbullah. And that’s okay, as long as all channels for discussion remain open.”

In a speech last Sunday, Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah warned Al-Hariri and the national unity government he heads, which includes Hizbullah members, they might not be able to meet and resolve the crisis once the charge sheet is out.

“After the indictment is issued, it might be too late,” he said. “The fact is that major powers are playing with the country and there can be no solution by wasting time.” Nasrallah said the court was part of an Israeli-instigated project to destroy Hizbullah’s military power.

Syrian-Saudi contacts, currently on pause while ageing Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz undergoes surgery in the United States, do not appear to have achieved anything major so far, Makdisi said. “But there’s still this notion that neither side wants to rock the boat or allow things to escalate too dramatically, which is a positive thing for Lebanon.” The burst of diplomatic activity was no substitute for political action, however. “There doesn’t seem to be any shortage of players who want to be involved, but you need political decisions to be taken to go ahead with resolving matters. Instead, everyone’s just waiting for something to happen,” he said.

Nasrallah gave his support to the Syrian- Saudi drive on Sunday, saying it was the only effort that could break the Lebanese deadlock and that it had a good chance of success.

The ad hoc evolution of events in Lebanon is keeping everyone off guard, Makdisi said, which could make it easy for a spoiler to do something to create a reaction followed by a counter-reaction. “My sense is that no one’s really in control,” he said. “Everyone’s just doing this dance without knowing which direction they’re supposed to be dancing in.”

Reprinted from Al Ahram weekly.