RAMALLAH (IPS) — Time is of the essence if the
implementation of a two-state solution to end the protracted
Israeli-Palestinian conflict is to succeed. Changing demographics both within
Israeli and Palestinian society could render this impossible, with a one-state
solution the only feasible outcome.

An eventual one-state solution, however, would lead to two
possible scenarios. Either Israel would extend the franchise to all
Palestinians in the occupied territories, which would lead to the end of
Israel’s Jewish character, or Palestinians would be denied the vote and Israel
would be officially pronounced an apartheid state.

Palestinian art student Khaled Jarrar shows a ‘State of Palestine’ stamp at the central bus station in the West Bank city of Ramallah May 31, 2011. Living in occupied territory, the Palestinians do not have their own frontier controls. Jarrar has decided to fill the institutional void with the entry stamp of his own design, which he offers to foreigners as they disembark from buses. REUTERS/Mohamad Torokman

Following recent talks in Washington between U.S. President
Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, analysts and
political pundits are warning that with the establishment of facts on the
ground the two-state solution is under growing threat.

“Israel could be the Titanic heading towards the
iceberg,” says Gershon Baskin, the Israeli co-CEO of the Israel-Palestine
Centre for Research and Information (IPCRI).

“The two-state solution is still possible despite the
physical realities on the ground. The settlements in the West Bank and East
Jerusalem can be dismantled or evacuated and handed over to the Palestinians
similar to what happened to the settlements in Gaza during Israel’s withdrawal
from there in 2005,” Baskin told IPS.

“Furthermore, an agreement can still be reached with
the current Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership. They will continue to
cooperate with the international community and with Israel if the latter shows
flexibility.

“But if no agreement is reached with the Israeli
government then the next generation of Palestinian leaders will give up entirely
on the two-state solution and will ask for the vote to be extended to the
Palestinian territories. Due to the Palestinians’ higher birth rate this will
lead to one-state and the end of Israel’s higher Jewish demography.”

Baskin travels regularly to the West Bank and films
non-violent protests against the continued expropriation of Palestinian land
and the expulsion of Palestinian civilians from their homes to make way for
illegal Israeli settlements in occupied East Jerusalem.

“The young Palestinians I speak to who have no
political affiliation say that the current Palestinian leadership is the most
moderate the Israelis will ever have. They argue that they have given Israel
the most generous offer ever. The Palestinians are prepared to settle for a
homeland on just 22 percent of historical Palestine and will accept the
Israelis keeping the remaining 78 percent.”

Palestinians were the indigenous majority before hundreds of
thousands either fled or were expelled by Israeli forces during the state’s
establishment in 1948.

The last chance for the two-state solution may come in
September when the PA takes its case for independence to the UN. The General
Assembly will recognize the fledgling state and then the Palestinians will have
the moral victory of recognition even if the Security Council doesn’t back the
establishment.

The matter can then be taken to international bodies such as
The International Court of Justice amongst others. This could lead to
international sanctions against Israel as an illegal occupier of another
country.

Dr. Samir Awad from Birzeit University near Ramallah agrees
that the time for a two-state solution is running out.

“It is becoming more problematic. The plans presented
to the Palestinians by the Israeli leadership are designed for rejection. They
want to present a state without East Jerusalem, without the Jordan valley, no
right of return for refugees, the continuation of many settlements, and
maintaining border and air space control,” Awad told IPS.

“The situation could be resolved if the Americans would
pressure the Israelis but they won’t. But the realities of history can’t be
ignored, and history will ultimately be on the side of the oppressed and those
denied historical justice. People should remember this.”

In the meantime the demographics of Israel’s population have
changed dramatically in the last few decades with Haredi or orthodox Jews
heading to become a quarter of Israel’s population in the future, with their
high birth rate.

Extremely right-wing Haredi political parties such as Shas
are powerful coalition factors in the make-up of Israeli governments, dictating
a fair amount of policy. The Haredi population has little education and high
rates of unemployment, leading to a drain on Israel’s economy as well as its
secular and more politically compromising demographic.

Furthermore, Russian immigrants to Israel now comprise
approximately a fifth of the population. Coming from former totalitarian
regimes many of them are also little inclined to accept the Palestinians as
equals.

And within Israel itself the birth rate of Israel’s
Palestinian minority outstrips that of the Jewish majority. Combined with the
“demographic threat” in the Palestinian territories, this is another
“time bomb” the Israelis fear.

This is the reason that some of the Israeli Knesset members
are arguing that Israel’s survival may well depend on the successful
implementation of the two-state solution.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said in 2007,
“If the two-state solution fails, Israel will face a South African style
struggle for political rights.” And “once that happens,” he
warned, “the state of Israel is finished.”