Worries of Israel striking Iran
might or might not be overblown but across the region the largely
hidden “cold war” between Tehran and its enemies is escalating fast,
bringing with it wider risk of conflict.

An Iranian couple rests as they sit in front of an Iranian-made Zelzal missile at a war exhibition held by Iran’s revolutionary guard to mark the anniversary of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88), also known in Iran as the ”Holy Defence”, in southern Tehran, September 26, 2011. Reuters/Morteza Nikoubazl

Speculation Israel might attack
Iran’s nuclear program has been rife in the Israeli media and oil
markets in recent weeks, with concerns that Tehran might retaliate with
devastating attacks on Gulf oil shipments.
But
that debate, experts say, misses large parts of the bigger picture. An
increasingly isolated Iran alarms not just Israel and the West but its
Gulf neighbors, especially longtime foe Saudi Arabia, and they are already fighting back – and the confrontation goes well beyond simply tightening sanctions.
From proxy wars in Iraq and Syria
to computer worm attacks and unexplained explosions in Iran – to
allegations of an assassination plot in Washington – a confrontation
once kept behind the scenes is breaking into increasingly open view.
The
storming of Britain’s Tehran embassy last week – and the tit-for-tat
shutdown of Iran’s embassy in London – were just the latest signs that
already limited dialogue is beginning to break down. That, analysts say,
is inherently dangerous.
“With
Iran, you have a government that is increasingly isolated and acting in
increasingly unpredictable ways,” says Jon Alterman, director of the
Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and National Studies in
Washington.
“There is certainly the
risk that a country will take the deliberate decision to attack Iran.
But there is also the risk that something happens that provokes… a war
that nobody planned and nobody wants.”
With the euro zone
crisis still far from over and worldwide demand already faltering, such
action and the resulting oil price surge could be disastrous for the
global economy.
Confrontation is,
of course, far from new. Tehran has long used militant groups such as
Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Hamas in the Palestinian territories to shape
regional politics and strike enemies, particularly Israel.
The
United States and Britain long accused Iran of using Shi’ite Muslim
militias in Iraq to kill Western troops and impose Tehran’s agenda.
The
Sunni-ruled states of the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia and Bahrain,
say Iran stirs up unrest in their Shi’ite communities, although many
Western analysts believe blaming Iran for protests this year in those
countries is an overstatement or at least oversimplification.
Many
such confrontations across the region appear escalating fast – and
becoming much harder for Washington and its allies to control.

PROXY WARS“U.S.
and Western power in the region is weakening, and that is leaving a
vacuum – most notably in Iraq – and you can see the main stakeholders in
the region reacting to Iran’s readiness to fill that vacuum,” says Reva
Bhalla, head of analysis at US private intelligence company Stratfor.
This
year’s uprising in Syria – Iran’s rare Arab friend – has created a new
battlefield. Since the early days of the uprising, U.S. officials
repeatedly and pointedly said they believed Assad’s government was
receiving support from Tehran.
Assad
has since been rapidly abandoned by the Arab League, in a diplomatic
effort led by Saudi Arabia and the other Sunni Arab Gulf states.
Analysts and officials say that could have as much to do with pushing
back against Iran as in reining in killings and rights abuses in Syria
itself.
Saudi or other Arab backing
for the increasingly armed opposition could escalate matters further,
potentially producing a sectarian civil war lasting years and spilling
across borders into neighboring states.
In
Iraq, the withdrawal of U.S. forces by the end of this year leaves more
room for both Iran and Sunni Arab neighbors to intervene through proxy
militias. At worst, that could reignite the Sunni-Shia infighting that
nearly tore the country apart during the US occupation.
“A
proxy Saudi-Iranian war in Iraq represents a very considerable threat
to oil supplies,” said Alastair Newton, chief political analyst at
Japanese bank Nomura.

POWER STRUGGLESome of the increased friction with its neighbors could be a symptom of a power struggle within Iran itself, Newton said.
“I
think one of the reasons you’re seeing temperature rising between Iran
and others is because you’re seeing temperature rising in Tehran
itself.”
Recent events such as the
embassy storming, in which Iran seemed willing to tear up the
international rulebook, could be a sign of increasing clout of hardline
clerics and Revolutionary Guard commanders.
The
attack on Britain’s embassy prompted widespread international
condemnation and looks to have ushered in a much tighter sanctions. That
too may strengthen the hardliners.
The
United States said in October it had caught Iran plotting to blow up
the Saudi ambassador to Washington DC in a downtown restaurant. Whether
or not the plot was genuine – and whoever was behind it – it marked a
further worsening of relations.

COVERT ACTIONIran’s
enemies appear to be using unconventional methods against it, suspected
of striking within its borders. Israel and the United States both make
clear they view covert operations as a sensible alternative to
conventional military action.
Last
year’s Stuxnet computer worm, which damaged computers used in
industrial machinery, was widely believed to have been a U.S.-Israeli
attack to cripple Iranian nuclear centrifuges.
Several Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed or disappeared, and Iran blames U.S. or Israeli intelligence services.
Two
explosions last month in Iran, one of which killed a Revolutionary
Guards gunnery general and around a dozen other officers, prompted
widespread speculation in Israel that its intelligence services were
involved.
Iran said the first blast was an accident and has not given clear accounts of the second incident.
Israeli
officials refuse to confirm or deny they were behind any specific
incidents. Several commentators and newspapers warned such action could
still backfire badly – perhaps prompting the kind of rocket attacks on
Israel launched last week by Hizbollah from Lebanon.
“Faced
with such operations, the Iranian regime is embarking on and will
embark on a series of actions of its own,” said a front-page article in
the Israeli newspaper Maariv by Nadav Eyal, foreign editor for Israel’s
Channel Ten television.
As to
whether a deliberate air strike on Iran’s nuclear program is genuinely
more likely in the coming months, experts are divided. The U.S.
withdrawal from Iraq makes it possible for Israeli jets to pass through
its airspace without needing U.S. permission. But many say the costs
would be too high.
“The problem is
that no one knows what the mid-term consequences would be,” said
Alterman at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“It could simply encourage the regime in place and intensify their
commitment to following a nuclear program with even more energy than
before.”

REUTERS