Political rhetoric implies that unauthorized immigration, especially across the U.S. border with Mexico, is wildly out of control.
Is that true?
According to a July 24 immigration report by the Pew Research Center, the number of unauthorized immigrants in the United States is not up. It’s down.
The peak, 12.2 million, was eight years ago, in 2007. Ever since, the number has been down. For five years it has been on a plateau about three quarters of a million people below the peak.
Pew’s report is based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Why has the number of unauthorized immigrants gone down and stayed down for more than half a decade? Pew attributes it to deportation, naturalization, voluntary departures and deaths. Unauthorized immigrants have declined from 4 percent to 3.5 percent of the nation’s population.
And what has been Mexico’s role in this? The decrease began during the 2007-2009 recession when immigration from Mexico declined. Today’s unauthorized immigrants are usually not Mexican at all.
In 2009, about half of those who came into the U.S. without authorization were from Mexico. Today, they are about a third of the new, smaller total. The proportion of unauthorized immigrants living in the United States who are Mexican has also declined, to 52 percent, and it seems destined to fall below half.
As U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio said in Thursday night’s GOP primary debate, the majority of immigrants today aren’t from Mexico. He cited Guatemala and El Salvador in Central America. They are also coming from South America and Asia.
So, if unauthorized immigration is down and if Mexico is no longer the major source, why the rhetoric?
Candidate Donald Trump took the credit: “If it weren’t for me, you wouldn’t even be talking about illegal immigration … This was not a subject that was on anybody’s mind until I brought it up.” He further said situation is being fueled by Mexican leaders sending criminals north.
An alternative possibility suggests that Trump is not driving this, but is merely exploiting an opening.
Sixty percent of the country’s unauthorized immigrants live in six states: California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Illinois. The four states with the largest numbers of electoral college votes in order are California, Texas, New York and Florida. Illinois is tied for fifth. New Jersey is slightly outside the top 10, the magic number used to determine which candidates would be in Thursday night’s debate.
As long as immigration is felt most keenly in key voting states, it should be a big part of the debate. But candidates who demonstrate they are out of touch with or distort the facts don’t deserve those votes.
Joe Grimm is visiting editor in residence at the Michigan State University School of Journalism. There, he is editor of a series of eight guides (so far) to cultural competence. One is 100 Questions and Answers About Hispanics and Latinos.
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