WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said
Tuesday that the Arab world’s revolutions could be remembered as “just a
mirage in the desert” if leaders fail to make good on demands for greater
democracy and economic opportunity.

The warning from the Obama administration’s top diplomat
came amid increased signs of a backslide in the so-called Arab Spring, as
Moammar Gadhafi persists with a bloody war against Libyan rebels and leaders
from Yemen to Syria to Bahrain violently resist the calls from their people for
a democratic transformation. Even in Egypt and Tunisia, where revolutions
successfully chased out presidents who ruled for a combined 54 years, reform
processes are at risk.

Speaking at the annual U.S.-Islamic World Forum, Clinton
said this was the first real chance in decades for fundamental change in the
region.

“Will the people and leaders of the Middle East and
North Africa pursue a new, more inclusive approach to solving the region’s persistent
political, economic and social challenges?” Clinton asked. “Will they
consolidate the progress of recent weeks and address long-denied aspirations
for dignity and opportunity? Or, when we meet at this forum in one year or five
years or 10, will we have seen the prospects for reform fade and remember this
moment as just a mirage in the desert?”

The speech was in many ways a sequel to one she gave in
Doha, Qatar, in January, when she warned Arab governments that they risked
“sinking into the sand” if they did not meet the needs of their
people.  A day later, Tunisian
President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled his country amid mass protests demanding
his ouster. Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak stepped down under similar pressure a month
later.

Clinton didn’t answer the fundamental question she posed:
Will the unrest that has spread across the Arab world produce truly free
societies with economic opportunities for their people, or leave corrupt and
repressive systems in place?

She stressed that much has already been accomplished, with
protest movements shattering the myth that Arabs don’t share the same
aspirations for freedom, dignity and opportunity, or that change could only
come through violence. The use of Facebook, Twitter and other social media
networks has helped mobilize younger citizens, who are increasingly connected,
organized and frustrated — and unwilling to be silenced by tanks and missiles.

“Changing leaders alone will not be enough to satisfy
them,” Clinton said.

She said real change in Egypt and Tunisia demands political
parties and civil society campaigns, and the protesters who brought down their
governments need to combine their passion with the practical work of politics.
At the same time, she said, transitional authorities must be inclusive, respect
rights such as free assembly, and provide basic security on the streets.
Corruption needs to be rooted out, martial law eliminated, independent judicial
systems established and fair elections held, she said.

Clinton spoke as the administration criticized Egypt’s
military council after a tribunal convicted 26-year-old blogger Maikel Nabil
Sanad of insulting the army and sentenced him to three years in prison, the
latest sign that the army may be reversing the reform process. Sanad carried
reports of abuses by the military and accused it of remaining loyal to ousted
President Hosni Mubarak.

“This is not the kind of progress we’re looking
for,” State Department spokesman Mark Toner said.

Clinton also lamented the continued plight of women in Egypt
and Tunisia, where they’ve been excluded from transitional processes. When
women marched through the site of the Cairo revolution, Tahrir Square, to
celebrate International Women’s Day, they were met by harassment and abuse, she
noted.

“You cannot have a claim to a democracy if half the
population is silenced,” Clinton said. “People have the right and
responsibility to devise their own government. But there are universal rights
that apply to everyone and universal values that undergird vibrant democracies
everywhere.”

Clinton said the U.S. has made clear that security alone
cannot resolve the crisis in Bahrain, where the Sunni monarchy has suppressed
Shi’a protesters with the help of Saudi Arabia and other neighbors.

In Yemen, Clinton stopped short of calling for President Ali
Abdullah Saleh to step down after 33 years in power but called for
“meaningful political change … in an orderly and peaceful manner.”

And she condemned the “abhorrent” violence by
Syria’s government against protesters she said were right to demand more
freedom from President Bashar Assad.

“All the signs of progress we have seen in recent
months will only be meaningful if more leaders in more places move faster and
further to embrace this spirit of reform,” Clinton said, evoking the
memory of Iran’s 1979 revolution which was “subverted by a new and brutal
dictatorship” and warning that Iranian leaders and al-Qaida propagandists
are trying to yoke the Arab world’s peaceful protests for their own ends.

Governments need to diversify their economies, open their
political systems, fight corruption and ensure the rights of women and
minorities, she said. “Those are the questions that will determine whether
the people of the region make the most of this historic moment or fall back
into stagnation.”