The Russian foreign minister has warned that a Western military strike against Iran would be “a catastrophe.”

Sergei Lavrov said an attack would lead to “large flows” of refugees from Iran and would “fan the flames” of sectarian tension in the Middle East.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak earlier said any decision on an Israeli attack on Iran was “very far off.”

Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister said talks on its nuclear program would “most probably” take place in Istanbul.

Ali Akbar Salehi told reporters during a visit to Turkey that negotiations were going on about the venue and date, and the timings would be settled soon.

But the UK Foreign Office said that there were “no dates or concrete plans” for talks, as Tehran was “yet to demonstrate clearly that it is willing to respond to (EU foreign policy chief) Baroness Ashton’s letter and negotiate without preconditions.

“Until it does so, the international community will only increase pressure on it through further peaceful and legitimate sanctions.”

Talks between Iran and six world powers – the U.S., UK, China, France, Russia and Germany – were last held in Istanbul a year ago but no progress was made.

A Western diplomat told the BBC that Iran was “chasing headlines” and “pretending that it was ready to engage”. Tehran was “more interested in propaganda” than in sitting down without preconditions, he said.

Tensions with Iran have risen in recent weeks after the UN’s nuclear monitors confirmed Tehran was producing 20% enriched uranium at its Fordo plant near Qom.

The U.S. and its allies suspect the Islamic Republic of secretly trying to develop a nuclear weapons capacity but Iran insists its program is peaceful.

The U.S. has recently imposed sanctions on Iran’s central bank and against three oil companies which trade with the country. The European Union has said it will place an embargo on Iran’s oil exports.

For its part, Iran has threatened to block the transport of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route.

The comments from Russia’s foreign minister included criticism of the Western moves to strengthen sanctions on the Islamic Republic, which he said were aimed at “stifling” Iran’s economy.

Mr. Lavrov told journalists in Moscow that they would have to ask those who he said were “talking constantly” about a military attack to find out if it would occur. He said such an attack would start off a “chain reaction” and he did not know how that would end.

Israel – thought to be the only nuclear power in the region – has said it could launch a military strike against Iran to prevent it developing nuclear weapons.

Last week, Iran blamed Israel and the U.S. for the death of Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan, an Iranian nuclear scientist apparently killed by a bomb targeting his car in Tehran.

BBC diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus says Mr. Barak’s comments can be seen as an attempt to placate the Americans, who are growing concerned that Israel may take military action against Iran without alerting Washington in advance. Barak, speaking on Israel’s army radio, implied that any plans would be coordinated with the U.S., however.

U.S. Military chief heads to Israel to avert attack on Iran

The U.S. defense chief General Martin Dempsey was due to arrive in Israel on Thursday for his first visit since becoming chairman of the joint chiefs of staff in September. On his agenda are meetings with various Israeli officials including Mr. Barak.

Israel’s media has interpreted the visit as an effort to sound out the Jewish state’s intentions toward Iran.

The visit follows efforts by U.S. President Barack Obama and his officials to warn Jerusalem against any unilateral military steps that would undermine sanctions against Iran and trigger far-reaching regional consequences.

News of the visit came as the Foreign Secretary William Hague refused to rule out military action in retaliation for what the West believes is Tehran’s attempts to manufacture a nuclear weapon.

“We believe all options should be on the table,” he said. “That is part of the pressure on Iran, but we are clearly not calling for or advocating military action.” Mr. Hague said the UK would seek tougher economic sanctions against the country.

The Wall Street Journal reported at the weekend that U.S. officials were making contingency plans for a possible Israeli strike amid fears Jerusalem could go it alone without the green light from Washington. In a phone conversation last week, Mr. Obama is understood to have warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against such a move to allow time for diplomatic pressure and sanctions to work.

But an official in Netanyahu’s cabinet yesterday criticized the U.S. for failing to follow Europe’s lead in pushing for tougher sanctions. The official hinted Israel may have to take matters into its own hands by suggesting that Mr. Obama was constrained by “election-year considerations.” 

Haaretz reports that Israel will present Gen. Dempsey with an intelligence assessment that indicates Iran has “not yet decided” whether to make a nuclear bomb.

It is not clear when Iran might make the decision to use its nuclear capabilities to manufacture a weapon, the paper says.

 

 U.S., Israel postpone missile drill

Both American and Israeli officials say that the decision to postpone a massive joint missile drill scheduled for this spring has nothing to do with hostilities with Iran, although insiders suggest something quite the contrary.

The Austere Challenge 12 drill, originally scheduled for April 2012, was slated to be the largest missile drill ever conducted in cooperation between the U.S. and Israel. A decision to put the drill on hold this week has thus prompted many to speculate as to why best buds America and Israel are having second-guesses.

Initial reports suggested that the decision was reached by both parties as they bide time to begin testing. The latest reports out of Israel, however, peg the decision as one made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alone, with no insight out of Washington. According to those sources, Israel is upset that the U.S. has acted hesitantly so far in its efforts with Iran, who is believed to be working on a nuclear weapons program.

Israeli sources speaking anonymously to Debka, a Middle East military news outlet with strong connections to both the Israel and U.S. intelligence communities, say that the decision to postpone the drill does not come as a joint agreement between Tehran and Washington, but is rather a decision from Netanyahu himself who has become worried by America’s lack of aggression against Iran as of late.

The decision to postpone the drill marks the first time ever that American and Israeli forces have put a joint military exercise on the back burner, prompting many to question what underlying factors are in play.

Sources suggest to Debka that Israel and Iran are at the zero hour, and if the U.S. won’t strike first, the Israelis will.

Although the U.S. has made moves that suggest it is prepared to take on Iran, it has done little to actually advance on them as rumors abound of a nuclear weapons program. In recent weeks, America has mobilized troops into the adjacent Strait of Hormuz and the nation of Kuwait, which adds to a massive toll of troops present to the east of Iran in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Additionally, the U.S. has equipped neighboring United Arab Emirates with weaponry. The eventual joint missile drill, if it comes to fruition, will install thousands of U.S. troops in Israel.

To Netanyahu, however, that might not be enough. Postponed drills only underscore Israel’s determination to strike on Iran without consulting Washington. 

According to Debka, four errors on the part of the Obama administration over the hostilities with Iran are to blame for the postponement of the missile drill. For those following the escalations between Washington and Tehran, they have been apparent from the get-go. With Israel a more easy target than the U.S. though, Netanyahu seems more concerned that a war erupting at home is more likely than in far away America, which brought an end to the eight year Iraq War only a month ago.

Only last month, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said the planned joint exercise served as the Obama administration’s “unprecedented levels of defense cooperation with Israel to back up our unshakable commitment to Israel’s security.” Just weeks later, however, Netanyahu seems ready to fight Iran on its own.  

 -BBC, The Independent , TAAN