The past week was filled with contrasting developments, some carrying serious dangers while others offered cautious optimism, shaped by the region’s ongoing conflicts and shifting diplomatic efforts.

Gaza: the struggle of the second phase of the ceasefire

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government pushes to resume full-scale war on Gaza, the Trump administration has taken a firm stance against it, preventing a return to large-scale Israeli military operations following the end of the first phase of the ceasefire.

Meanwhile, Hamas is engaged in direct negotiations with U.S. envoys, representing President Trump, who has abandoned his earlier proposal to forcibly displace Gaza’s population. Instead, he is now focused on achieving a long-term resolution to the war.

Trump’s shift in policy on Gaza

On Tuesday, March 11, Trump publicly rejected the idea of expelling Palestinians from Gaza.

“No one wants to expel Palestinians from Gaza,” he said.

This statement was welcomed by Hamas, which praised the shift and expressed willingness to engage in negotiations on the second phase of the ceasefire.

However, Israel continues its policy of blockade and starvation in Gaza while also carrying out limited military operations, escalating tensions within Netanyahu’s coalition. Far-right ministers insist that the war must continue until Hamas is completely eliminated.

Negotiations in Qatar

A new round of ceasefire negotiations began in Doha on Tuesday, March 11, with the participation of:

• U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff
• Qatari and Egyptian mediators
• Israeli representatives

U.S. proposal for a ceasefire extension

According to diplomatic sources, the U.S. has proposed extending the ceasefire in Gaza for several weeks in exchange for Hamas releasing five Israeli hostages alive.

Israel has responded positively to the proposal, viewing it as a possible step toward securing a long-term truce.

Meanwhile, as talks continued, Israel renewed its military operations in Gaza, leading to further casualties. Since the war began on October 7, 2023, Palestinian authorities report that more than 48,000 people have been killed and more than 111,000 injured.

Yemen: Houthis enforce ban on Israeli ships

In a direct escalation against Israel, Yemen’s Houthi movement announced on Thursday, March 13, that their ban on Israeli-linked ships has officially taken effect.

“Any Israeli ship that enters our designated operational zone will be attacked,” Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said. “This is a necessary and justified step.”

The Houthis had previously warned that they would resume naval operations against Israel if the blockade on Gaza was not lifted.

Syria: Coastal massacres and political realignments

Horrific massacres in Latakia and Tartus

In one of the deadliest escalations in Syria, more than 1,300 civilians, mostly from the Alawite community, were massacred in brutal attacks in Latakia and Tartus. The perpetrators were identified as armed factions led by former regime military officers.

Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s response

In response to the massacres, interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa took immediate steps to address the situation, including:

1. Signing an agreement with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) leader Mazloum Abdi, integrating Kurdish political and military factions into the Syrian state.
2. Reaching a deal with the Druze “Men of Dignity” movement to establish a local security force exclusively composed of Suwayda residents.

However, Druze spiritual leader Hikmat al-Hijri rejected the agreement.

“We do not accept any agreement with the Damascus government, which remains extremist and must face international justice,” al-Hijri said.

New Syrian constitutional declaration

On Thursday, under Israeli airstrikes, al-Sharaa issued a “constitutional declaration” to establish a framework for Syria’s five-year transitional period. The document:

• Emphasizes separation of powers, granting executive authority to the president and legislative authority to parliament.
• Declares Islamic jurisprudence as the primary source of legislation, while protecting freedom of speech, press and property rights.
• Establishes a constitutional drafting committee to prepare a permanent Syrian constitution.

Lebanon faces “mini-war” amid resumption of “quintet” activities and U.S. proposal to resolve border issues

Lebanon remains caught between Israeli aggression and diplomatic efforts to stabilize the region.

Israeli border attacks

Israeli forces continue to launch airstrikes and artillery shelling on Lebanese villages along the border. These attacks coincide with efforts by the U.S. and the Arab-international “Quintet Committee” (U.S., France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar) to push Lebanon toward implementing the ceasefire agreement.

U.S. proposal for a border agreement

U.S. Deputy Envoy Morgan Ortagus revealed a new American plan to settle Lebanon’s border dispute with Israel, which includes:

• Defining the five disputed border points.
• Dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure south of the Litani River.
• Strengthening the Lebanese Army as the sole security force in southern Lebanon.

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to negotiations mediated by the U.S. to discuss border security and long-term de-escalation.

Israeli-Lebanese prisoner exchange

On Tuesday, Israel released four Lebanese detainees at the Rosh Hanikra border crossing as a gesture toward Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.

A day later, the Lebanese Army secured the release of soldier Ziad Shibli, who had been wounded before his capture by Israeli occupation forces.

Hezbollah’s stance

 “The resistance will remain,” Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem said. “We will not allow Israeli occupation to continue in our land.”

He also criticized the Lebanese government.

“Reconstruction is a fundamental part of national recovery. Without it, there will be no reform or stability.”

Conclusion

This past week exposed the deepening complexities of war and diplomacy in the Middle East. From Gaza’s ongoing battle for survival to Syria’s political reshaping and Lebanon’s fragile ceasefire, the region remains at a crossroads between war, peace and reconstruction.