After more than six decades of Ba’athist rule of Syria, 54 years under the Assad family, and 24 years of Bashar al-Assad’s presidency, the Syrian regime crumbled in a matter of just 11 days. This dramatic turn of events was driven by a rapid advance of armed opposition groups from Idlib to Damascus, supported by Turkey, timed with Israeli moves and occurring amidst Russian disengagement and Iranian ineffectiveness. The fall of the Assad regime marks a historic geopolitical shift in the Middle East, reshaping alliances, power dynamics and the future of Syria.

An opposition movement reaches its climax

Opposition forces, led by Abu Mohammad al-Golani (Ahmed al-Sharaa), the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, quickly filled the vacuum left by Assad’s departure. The regime’s collapse sparked celebrations across Syria, with jubilant crowds tearing down statues of Hafez al-Assad and images of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus and other cities. Political prisoners were freed en masse and opposition leaders declared the start of a transitional phase.

One notable story emerged of a political prisoner freed after years in isolation. Unaware of Assad’s ouster, the prisoner reportedly expressed disbelief upon learning the news, symbolizing the long-standing isolation and oppression many Syrians endured.

However, this sense of liberation was accompanied by significant concerns. Many Syrians feared that the new leadership, led by an Islamist faction, might impose a strict, exclusionary regime. al-Golani formed a temporary government led by Mohammad al-Bashir, but early signs of centralized Islamist control alarmed some observers. The government announced it would govern for three months, but many suspect it may entrench itself further.

Amid these developments, the U.N. reported more than one million new displacements in just a week as Syrians fled ongoing instability, particularly minorities fearing persecution. The quick territorial advances of the opposition groups, which began in Idlib and swept through Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Damascus, raised concerns about the ability of the new leadership to maintain security and prevent infighting among the various armed factions.

Israeli expansion: A dangerous opportunism

As Syria descended into chaos, Israel seized the moment to expand its influence. Over the past week, the Israeli military launched “Operation Bashan Arrow”, its largest aerial campaign in history, targeting Syrian military infrastructure. Within days, Israel destroyed 90 percent of Syria’s military assets, including air defenses, warplanes, tanks and naval vessels.

Israeli forces pushed into Syrian territory, occupying areas in the Golan Heights and advancing within 25 kilometers of Damascus. The move was condemned by the United Nations and Arab countries, who labeled it a blatant violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement. Despite international criticism, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the Golan Heights would remain part of Israel “forever.”

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz claimed that the campaign was intended to prevent armed groups from creating a power structure similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in Gaza.

The campaign displaced thousands of Syrians, as Israeli forces began systematic evictions in strategic areas. Israel’s actions have heightened tensions in the region, with many fearing an escalation of violence in the already fragile Middle East.

A man holds Syrian opposition flags as he celebrates after Syria’s army command notified officers on Sunday that President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule has ended, in Aleppo, Syria, December 8.

A blow to the “Axis of Resistance”

Syria’s collapse delivered a significant blow to the so-called “Axis of Resistance” comprising Iran, Hezbollah, Iraq, Yemen and Syria, which had long opposed Israeli and Western influence in the region. Syria’s strategic position had made it a linchpin in this alliance, but Assad’s fall has disrupted this power structure.

Iranian officials admitted that the collapse of Assad’s regime would destabilize the resistance network. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed that the “resistance will adapt and find new ways to assert influence.” Meanwhile, Hezbollah withdrew its forces from Syria days before Assad’s fall, reflecting concerns about its future role.

A fragile transitional phase

The transitional government, led by al-Bashir, faces immense challenges. Syria’s infrastructure is devastated and its financial system is in disarray. The government has promised to stabilize the country, but questions remain about its ability to address the deep divisions within Syrian society.

Al-Golani announced plans to dissolve former regime security forces and rebuild the nation’s security apparatus. However, his Islamist background has raised concerns about potential authoritarian tendencies.

Al-Golani has sought to reassure minorities and international observers by pledging an inclusive approach. However, fears persist that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s Islamist roots may lead to the exclusion of other political factions. Early indications, such as the temporary freezing of the constitution and the parliament, have raised concerns about authoritarian tendencies.

International reactions

The United States welcomed Assad’s departure as a “historic opportunity” for Syria, but warned of the risks of instability. President Biden pledged U.S. support for Syria’s neighbors and opposition groups to help steer the country toward democracy. However, U.S. officials also expressed concerns about the potential resurgence of ISIS, which has already become more active in central Syria following the collapse of Assad’s military forces.

Biden described the moment as both an opportunity and a “moment fraught with risk and uncertainty”, emphasizing the need for international cooperation to stabilize Syria.

Turkey, a key backer of the Syrian opposition, has played a significant role in facilitating the advance of opposition forces. Turkish officials have emphasized their commitment to ensuring stability in northern Syria, but face challenges in managing Kurdish factions and potential tensions with other opposition groups.

The path ahead

The fall of the Assad regime marks a turning point for Syria, offering hope for liberation but also exposing the country to new challenges. The swift rise of opposition forces, coupled with foreign interventions and the absence of a unified vision for governance, leaves Syria at a crossroads.

For now, Syrians are celebrating the end of decades of authoritarian rule. However, the country’s future depends on its ability to navigate the transitional phase, rebuild its institutions and ensure that all factions and communities have a stake in the new Syria. The road ahead is long, but for the first time in decades, Syrians hope for a brighter future.