BEIRUT  (IPS) — The political crisis gripping Lebanon has chipped away at what has been viewed by most since the 2005 parliamentary elections as an unlikely alignment of two political heavyweights.

The recent falling out between Michel Aoun, head of the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and Michel Murr, the Greek Orthodox former vice-president of parliament, heralds a change that will undoubtedly affect the 2009 electoral landscape in the Lebanese Christian region of the Metn in the north.

Inexplicable alliances have long been a tradition of Lebanese politics, defined by short-sighted tactical partnerships rooted in the intense rivalry of opposing parties, communities and political families. Such alliances have played a key role in the struggle for power among the various Christian factions.

To strengthen their positions, the Christian Kataeb party (Phalangists) and the Lebanese Forces — led by Amin Gemayel and Samir Geagea respectively — joined forces in the 2005 elections with the largely Sunni Future Movement (headed by Saad Hariri, son of slain former prime minister Rafik Hariri) and the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) headed by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. Comprising the March 14 Movement and holding a total of 67 seats out 128 in parliament, the alliance is considered the majority.

At the other end of the spectrum is the opposition, consisting of the surprising “memorandum of understanding” between the FPM and Hizbullah, the Shia “Party of God,” which is led by Hassan Nasrallah. Also part of the alliance is the Shi’a Amal party, headed by current speaker of the parliament, Nabih Berri.

Since the assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005, the two sides have failed to reach a compromise on the balance of power in government, which has resulted in an ongoing sit-in protest by the opposition in Beirut since December 2006 and an empty presidential seat since the position was vacated by former president Emile Lahoud in November 2007.

It is, in fact, the postponement of presidential elections 19 times thus far that has incited Murr to warn Christian MPs who abstained from voting that they might not be re-elected. “Christians should not be lied to; under the false pretense of defending the rights of their community, presidential elections are being blocked,” he said.

“Murr believes presidential elections should take place as soon as possible, while the FPM links elections to a basket of measures, such as agreement on the future cabinet composition and the replacement of the inequitable 2001 parliamentary law,” says Armenian MP Hagop Pakradounian.

So, what does the growing rift between Murr and Aoun over the appointment of a president mean for the 2009 elections?

The battle for power in the Metn pits the Kataeb party and LF against the FPM, which is joined by a few independents, including Murr. The impact of Murr’s defection from the opposition can be measured by his political weight in the area, which affects the outcome of eight parliamentary seats: four Maronite positions, two Greek Orthodox, one Catholic and one Armenian.

Research shows that participation of voters has been customarily low in the area, as is the case with the rest of the country. According to statistician Kamal Feghali, 51.2 percent of registered voters participated in the 2005 elections, in which Murr represented 20,000 votes. In the 2007 partial elections (prompted by the assassination of Kataeb MP Pierre Gemayel), 47.2 percent of voters participated, with 15,600 votes influenced by Murr. During both elections, total votes amounted to about 80,000.

“There are currently four independent members of parliament, of which three are allied with the FPM — Hagop Pakradounion, Selim Salhab and Ghassan Moukheiber — while the fourth is Michel Murr. Four other seats are occupied by FPM deputies,” explains Alain Aoun from the FPM.

According to Aoun, Murr’s new position will be restricted to the Metn and will not affect national elections. “It is too early to measure the exact repercussions of this new realignment on the political landscape. The disagreement between Mr. Murr and the FPM might dissipate before the 2009 elections, as long as the political discourse remains toned down,” he points out, adding that the political context in 2009 will ultimately define the outcome of the next parliamentary elections.

Another factor that could disrupt the balance of power in the Metn is the Armenian sway. “Armenian voters represent some 12,000 votes in the Metn, of which our party, Tachnag, traditionally garners 80 percent,” explains Pakradounian. Some 10,000 people voted for the Tachnag party in the 2005 elections, while this figure came down in 2005 by 1,150 votes, according to statistics provided by Feghali.

“Murr’s recent change of heart does guarantee his realignment with the majority,” says Pakradounian. “I think his main objective is to exert enough pressure to resolve the deadlock and accelerate presidential elections. My belief is that he is still trying to find a common denominator between the opposition and majority.

“We maintain excellent relations with both Gen. Aoun and President Murr, who are our allies, and their disagreement may be short-lived,” continues Pakradounian. While Tachnag’s alliance with Michel Murr is more than 44 years old, Pakradounian states that General Aoun has also frequently proven his loyalty to the Armenian party by refusing to participate in the cabinet in the absence of the Tachnag.

With the power to sway votes in one direction or the other, the Tachnag is certainly proving a force to be reckoned with. Their influence could even reach the elections of the eastern Bekaa city of Zahle, where the party holds one of seven seats.