Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev

Russia is already a member of “the quartet,” the group of states seeking to mediate between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.  According to a Russian newspaper, Moscow will host a peace meeting in spring 2009.

Israel and Russia have hit a rough patch in their relations recently.  Reports indicate that Russia agreed to sell more weapons to Syria.  Russia also began renovating a Syrian port to be used by the Russian naval fleet, which also announced more cooperation with the country.  

Russia is not pleased about Israel’s well-publicized, close relations with Georgia, which have included weapons sales, training and advising. In the lead-up to the Russian-Georgian fight, Israel decreased those ties for fear of alienating Russia.

One analyst, George Friedman of the private research group Stratfor, argues that “the Russians are not after Israel, which is a sideshow for them.”  Rather, they seek to challenge American interests in the Middle East in order to secure their own sphere of influence, mainly the former Soviet republics, which include the Baltic states, the Caucasus region and Central Asia.    By increasing their influence in the Middle East, he writes, they will have more leverage where they care for it most.

This view explains the upsurge in Russian activity in the region, but also suggests it will not lead to a new Cold War, as many in the Arab world anticipate.  Those who oppose American hegemony in the region welcome it as a balancing force.

As Mai Yamani wrote in the Daily Star, “for the first time in Russia’s history in the Middle East, it can depend on genuinely powerful local allies.”  The last Russian presence in the region was when the Soviet Union had thousands of military advisers in Egypt until 1972.  It used naval bases in Syria until 1989.

Russian foreign policy in the region is leaning on enhancing prior relations with Iran, and now, Syria.  This means increased diplomatic cover for the two.  Russia’s role in Iran’s nuclear development program and opposition to sanctions against them is one example.  Russia’s relations with Iran picked up last year, when former President Vladimir Putin visited the country.  It was the first trip by a Russian leader since Stalin went in 1943.

Syrian president Basher Al Assad invited Russia’s support.  He flew to Moscow immediately after the Georgia conflict.

Yamani also notes that Hamas recognized “the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the regions that Russia has helped break away from Georgia” in an effort to demonstrate its support for Russia.

In mid-September, the Jordanian Foreign Minister Salah Bashir and visiting Russian Deputy Foreign Minister and Middle East Envoy Alexander Sultanov held a joint conference to urge Israel to halt settlement-building and honor its obligations towards peace. They also called for Israel to take measures to reduce Palestinian suffering and let them rebuild their economy.  

At the U.N. late last month, the Russian Foreign Minister met with Iraqi officials to state their support  for the Iraqi government, and their full sovereignty in light of a future American withdrawal. As a goodwill step, Russia canceled $12 billion in Iraqi debt, a leftover from the prior regime.

For its part, Russia prefaces each overture with a statement that it does not seek to upset the region’s balance of powers.  It also has maintained that its re-entry in the region is a far cry from its past there.  Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian Prime Minister, told the Israeli daily Ha’aretz that Russia has different values and goals in the Middle East than it did when it was the center of the Soviet Union.

Oleg Tsatsourine, an advisor to Medvedev, said “will not take any action that might alter the balance of power in the Middle East or compromise Russia’s excellent relations with Israel.”