Regime change in Syria may have a huge impact on the entire
Middle East. If the changes are genuine and well planned, they may activate the
neglected Syrian track of the peace process with Israel; advance conflict
resolution between Israel and Palestinians; and establish balanced relations
with Lebanon. Creative Syrian reform could also help Hizbullah and Hamas better
integrate in Lebanon and Palestine respectively. Reforms from Damascus could
contribute to the stability of Iraq — through improved border control — and
provide a model for political reform in Iran.

After two weeks of growing street protests, the reaction of
President Assad to the uprising in his country is not clear yet. Will his
response to the uprising be to lead the reform to save Syria or to dilute
Syrian aspirations and continue his father’s patriarchal legacy?  His speech on March 30 disappointed
many observers. He acknowledged the need for serious reform but gave no
specifics on planned action.

While there is sharp debate among Syrians on how best to
introduce change, the Syrians generally believe that the regime is the root
cause of oppression and corruption rather than the president. This is not the
case in Libya, where Colonel Gaddafi is both the source of trouble and the
target of the uprising.

But Assad does not have an easy task in reforming a dynasty
he has led for eleven years and his father founded forty-one years ago.  Syria is a police state. The shadow of
fear hovers over society. Politics is only for the ruling elite; others whisper
when they discuss sensitive matters. 
State news is rhetorical. 
One hears about thousands of political prisoners and missing persons and
learns not to ask probing questions. The emergency law has been in operation
for 48 years.

Religion and politics are separated less by intimidation
than by law. The more secular the mosque and the church are, the less their
leaders are monitored. Religious authority is limited by the state. Secularism
makes the Syrian regime attractive to reformers who realize that sectarianism
is a threat to national unity. 

The ruling regime is largely made up of the Alawite sect,
which constitutes only 15% of the population. In theory, this minority is an
offshoot of Shiism. In practice, the Alawites are an ethnic community with a
sectarian label. Like the Kurds and the Druze minorities of Syria, the Alawites
are among the most secular of Arabs. The Christian minority, which includes
ethnic Armenians, also tends to be secular. Two thirds of the Syrians are
Sunni. The Sunni of Syria are not as demonstrative in their religious practice
as the other Sunni of the region.

The ruling party has given the Alawites privileges and
advantages in politics and the economy. Assad’s extended family also dominates
lucrative business. The regime tries to co-opt dissenting people of influence.

Does Bashar al Assad deserve to be trusted to lead change
which the revolt is asking for? His professional international training is an
asset. When former President Hafez al Assad died in 2000, his son Bashar left
his London ophthalmology practice to replace his father.  He is the “accidental
autocrat.” Hafez al Assad bequeathed Bashar an iron-fisted regime, with
many local and foreign enemies. Bashar entered a world in which stability and
freedom compete in a zero-sum game.

Assad’s significant following in Syria should not be
dismissed. He is secular with strong national pride and a yearning for social
change and Arab unity. His progressive wife is trained in business, active in
civil society and popular. 

The Achilles heel of the Damascus leader is his cohorts at
the helm.  Bashar has been
controlled and ill advised by a self-serving establishment, in which the
military and the business elite are dominant. To survive in power, Assad has to
embrace the revolt rather than attempt to discipline it. He should offer
immediate, drastic reforms.

To appease the street protesters, Assad has recently
dissolved the cabinet, released some political prisoners and promised to lift
the law of emergency and to encourage party politics. He has also raised
salaries and reduced the price of basic commodities.

However, for the people of the uprising, Assad’s offer is
not enough. The protest continues as people demand radical change, including
the release of all political prisoners, constitutional change and implementing
of free elections. People aspire for an active civic society, vigorous
political parties and a free market.

But such a serious level of political reform cannot be
implemented by a system that does not trust people. The current regime must be
fundamentally reformed. Will Assad have the courage and the backing to
challenge the entrenched regime? Assad needs the power of the reformers to
counter the self perpetuating establishment. 

Many observers warn that disintegration of the Syrian regime
could have destructive ramifications for the region. On the other hand, orderly
regime reform could have a beneficial impact not only on Syria, but also on
Lebanon, Israel, future Palestine, Jordan and Iraq.

Assad’s second term ends in three years. He could use this period to
oversee regime reform. Will Bashar al-Assad live up to the expectations of a
great nation in a rapidly changing region?