“A setback.” That’s how President Obama described the fall of Ramadi to ISIS, after nine months of bombing the terrorist group. 

But a quick look at the geo-military map, specifically at the vast swaths of land seized by ISIS in Anbar, tells a different story. The strategic location of the city— which is the capital of Anbar Province— and the successive advances of ISIS spell a more serious situation than a “setback.” ISIS victories in Ramadi and a few days later in Palmyra could be an all out defeat to the U.S. war on terror. 

Meanwhile, there is a theory that the frightening rise of terrorist groups in the Middle East after what became known as the “Arab Spring” is intended to dismantle the central authorities in Arab states. The “creative chaos” that George W. Bush started would open the door to further partitioning of Middle Eastern countries. 

Regardless of the accuracy of that theory, it has become clear from the contradictory reactions by different officials in Washington and Baghdad that the fall of Ramadi was unexpected. Despite the attempts to play down the ISIS advance in Anbar Province, the withdrawal of the Iraqi army’s 8th Division from Ramadi is a major victory for ISIS. Ramadi will be the passageway to link and strengthen the militants in Syria and Iraq. 

Ramadi put ISIS on the doorsteps of Baghdad, making it the first Arab capital under imminent threat from the terrorist group. It also enables ISIS to attack the Shi’a holy shrines in Karbala, raising warning for an all out sectarian war. 

The fall of Ramadi comes at a time when the Pentagon is claiming that jihadists are on the defensive after the U.S.-led coalition’s air strike against ISIS. 

Iraq is already ripe for a sectarian conflict, especially since Shi’a paramilitaries, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), have been fighting alongside the Iraqi security forces against ISIS. The Iraqi army’s defeat in Ramadi will lead to greater intervention from the PMF in the mostly Sunni Anbar Province. 

General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, acknowledged that the Iraqi army was not driven away, but it “drove away” from Ramadi.

It is not clear why this happened. Some observers see a conspiracy aimed at highlighting the weakness of the official Iraqi forces and their reliance on the PMF. Analysts who support this theory say Iran encouraged the army to pull out of the city to impose the PMF on the people of Anbar. But why would the Iraqi government, which is the biggest loser from the defeat, appoint the general who withdrew from Kirkuk to lead its forces in Ramadi? And more importantly, why didn’t the U.S.-led coalition bomb ISIS positions in Ramadi to foil this alleged Iranian plot?

On the other hand, PMF supporters provide a different theory. They accuse the Americans and their Iraqi patrons of working to partition Iraq and other countries in the Levant, especially since the fall of the city was coupled with calls for arming the Sunni tribes of Anbar.

But no matter which theory— if either— is true, it has become clear that the American strategy in fighting ISIS has failed. 

ISIS captured Ramadi at the same time that the Iraqi Parliament passed a law to arm and give autonomy to Kurdish and Sunni factions. Simultaneously, the Saudi-Qatari-Turkish push to bolster Islamist rebels in Syria has intensified and Shi’a pilgrims clashed with the Sunni community in Baghdad last week.

We cannot separate what happened in Ramadi from the state of Arab nations, which seem to be facing plans to partition and dismantle them. 

-Nabil Haissam is The Arab American News correspondent in Beirut. This article was translated from Arabic and edited for space.