Lebanon’s leaders have just lit a fuse they may not be able to put out. In a move backed and pushed by Washington, the Lebanese government has approved a U.S.-designed plan to disarm Hezbollah by year’s end. The army has been ordered to draft the blueprint, dismantle resistance positions across the country and coordinate with U.N. peacekeepers — a process already underway, tearing down hundreds of Hezbollah positions south of the Litani River since last year’s so-called ceasefire.

This is not about “stability” or “sovereignty.” It is about stripping Lebanon of its only credible shield against Israel’s constant aggression.

The deadline is four months. The cost could be the nation’s survival. This is not about “stability” or “sovereignty.” It is about stripping Lebanon of its only credible shield against Israel’s constant aggression. The Lebanese government, in a stunning act of either blindness or betrayal, appears convinced that Israel will respect Lebanese borders once Hezbollah is disarmed. Reality says otherwise: since that ceasefire, Israel has violated it over 3,500 times — bombing villages, assassinating targets and swarming Lebanese skies with drones. The Lebanese Armed Forces “do not fight Israel”, yet they are now being sent to neutralize the only force that does.

There are zero guarantees Israel will stop its attacks if Hezbollah disarms. The U.S. game plan is plain: remove Lebanon’s deterrent, leave the south exposed and trigger either an occupation or a slow-burn internal collapse. What Israel has failed to achieve after decades of war, the Lebanese government is now trying to deliver under the pretense of “national policy.”

As a Lebanese American who has never been a fan of militias — and who might have supported such a move 10 years ago — I now see this as political treason. The south remains partially occupied. Villages are still in ruins. Israel bombs Lebanese soil almost daily. Choosing this moment to dismantle Hezbollah is not just unpatriotic; it is dangerously foolish. It is also classic U.S. “divide and conquer”: fracture a nation from within, pit institutions against each other, then exploit the chaos to redraw the political map.

Forced disarmament will not destroy the resistance; it will drag the fight into Lebanon’s streets.

The army may have its orders, but can it actually succeed? What Israel could not do with its full military might, the Lebanese Armed Forces will somehow accomplish in four months? Hezbollah, even after losing senior figures, remains over 50,000 strong, with deep social roots — including sympathizers inside the army and state. Forced disarmament will not destroy the resistance; it will drag the fight into Lebanon’s streets.

History could not be clearer. The 1975 civil war began with political blunders, outside interference and escalating factional violence. The 2006 war proved again that an unarmed Lebanon is an open invitation to Israeli bombardment and occupation. Disarmament without a national consensus is not peace — it is a blueprint for disaster. The assassination of Rafiq Hariri and the turmoil that followed showed how quickly foreign powers can weaponize Lebanon’s divisions. Today’s plan risks doing the same on a larger scale.

And Lebanon’s fate is tied to a wider regional design. This move mirrors the U.S.–Israeli formula seen elsewhere: dismantle non-state resistance movements, weaken governments that refuse to bow to foreign dictates and lock in permanent military dominance. Gaza and the West Bank are the clearest warnings — unarmed populations living under siege and occupation. Syria’s decade of destruction shows how easily a fractured nation can be hollowed out by foreign-backed conflict. Lebanon is now being steered toward the same cliff.

The Lebanese government should be ashamed for abandoning its people so openly. Like Syria’s leadership, they will pay a price for their miscalculations — but ordinary Lebanese will pay the greater one, in blood, sovereignty and dignity.

If this plan goes forward, Lebanon as we know it will vanish… It will be just another corner of the “Greater Israel” map.

Even many critics of Hezbollah understand that its weapons remain the only deterrent to an Israeli takeover of the south. The very fact that Israel demands disarmament shows it still sees Hezbollah as a credible threat, despite claiming to have “decimated” it.

Lebanon’s future depends on its people’s ability to see through foreign-engineered plots and reject sectarian traps. The nation’s true strength lies in a united public willing to defend its sovereignty — not in leaders who barter it away.

If this plan goes forward, Lebanon as we know it will vanish. It will not be an independent nation. It will be Gaza. It will be the West Bank. It will be just another corner of the “Greater Israel” map.

– Jamal I. Bittar is a university professor and opinion writer focused on Middle East politics and U.S. foreign policy. He is based in Toledo, Ohio. The views expressed are solely his own and do not represent those of any institution with which he is affiliated.