It took Iran only a few hours to recover from Israel’s devastating “opening strike” on Friday, June 13, which killed top military commanders and nuclear scientists. The Islamic Republic responded forcefully and directly, launching waves of heavy missile attacks that struck deep inside Israel — including central Tel Aviv — in what it dubbed “The Third True Promise.”

As Iranian missiles rained down for days, Israel retaliated through airstrikes and covert operations inside Iran, targeting critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear and ballistic missile facilities. Despite the intense escalation, President Trump — a week into the confrontation — has shown no clear intent to join Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion”, launched by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with the declared goal of destroying Iran’s nuclear program and potentially toppling its regime.

Instead, Trump, who has used the phrase time and again, said he’s giving himself a two-week window to decide whether the U.S. will join the war against Tehran, amid growing doubts about Israel’s ability to sustain a prolonged conflict under relentless missile strikes. Israeli defenses, including the Arrow (Hetz) anti-missile systems, are reportedly stretched thin, and the pressure on Israel’s political and military leadership is mounting.

Can the U.S. hit the Fordow nuclear facility?

As Tel Aviv struggles to inflict a decisive blow, Israeli officials have openly acknowledged their inability to destroy Fordow, Iran’s most fortified nuclear facility, buried deep inside a mountain. Experts say only the U.S. possesses the capability to strike such a target using the GBU-57A/B “Massive Ordnance Penetrator”, a 30,000-pound bunker-busting bomb deployable only by the stealth B-2 bomber.

Any such strike would require direct U.S. military involvement, something Trump has repeatedly claimed to avoid. However, Israeli and American analysts alike warn that the longer the conflict drags on without American support, the higher the cost for Israel, both militarily and politically.

Iran warns U.S.: No interference

Iran has responded with stern warnings. Officials threatened to target U.S. bases across the region and potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical crossing for global oil supplies. Tehran also emphasized that any U.S. intervention would trigger regional escalation, drawing in allied states and non-state actors across the “Axis of Resistance.”

Despite Israeli unchecked claims of successfully striking the Arak and Natanz nuclear facilities, experts argue that victory remains elusive without disabling Fordow. The longer Israel operates without U.S. airpower, the less sustainable its position becomes, according to internal Israeli intelligence assessments.

Trump shifts to diplomacy — or strategic deception?

Following a week of issuing threats — including calls for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and implied threats to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Sayyed Ali Khamenei — Trump has shifted to a more diplomatic tone. On Thursday, the White House stated that there was a “significant opportunity” for negotiations, and that Trump would decide “within two weeks” whether to authorize a strike on Iran.

“The Iranians are interested in coming to the table,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said. “President Trump is a peace-through-strength leader — and he’s not afraid to act.”

Still, many in Washington and Tel Aviv see Trump’s pause as a possible strategic feint before a major strike on Fordow. Trump previously demanded the evacuation of Tehran and claimed that “Iran cannot win this war”, reinforcing speculation of a U.S. military move if Israel falters.

Meanwhile, CNN and other outlets confirmed that 14 U.S. military cargo planes loaded with U.S. military supplies landed in Israel in recent days, adding to the 800+ flights that have arrived since the start of the war in Gaza months earlier.

U.S. military moves raise eyebrows

Satellite imagery analyzed by AFP revealed that the U.S. military has emptied much of Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, one of its largest in the region, likely as a precaution. Retired Gen. Mark Schwartz, now an adjunct international/defense researcher at RAND, warned that the base — located just 300 km from Iran — would be extremely vulnerable in the event of escalation.

Simultaneously, the Pentagon announced:

• The arrival of the USS Thomas Hudner missile destroyer in the Mediterranean

• The repositioning of the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier from the Pacific to the Arabian Sea

• The mobilization of 30 KC-135 and KC-46 aerial refueling tankers to bases closer to the conflict zone — described as the largest such deployment in years

While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth attempted to downplay these actions, the scale and speed of U.S. movements suggest readiness for direct engagement.

Iran holds its line — but open to talks

Tehran’s position remains firm: Halt Israeli aggression and Iran will halt its missile response. The Islamic Republic insists it has no intention of building nuclear weapons, but demands respect for its right to nuclear technology. It says it’s open to resuming nuclear talks with Europe and Washington, excluding Israel.

On Friday, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi warned the U.S. against intervening militarily:

“Iran will defend itself with full force if this conflict escalates.”

In Geneva, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is set to meet with Nathalie Loiseau, the EU chair of the sub-committee on Security and Defense in the European Parliament, and foreign ministers of France, Germany and the U.K., as the U.S. remains absent from the talks. Trump has reportedly expressed support for the European initiative, but continues to demand Iran halt uranium enrichment entirely, a condition previously rejected by Tehran.

Netanyahu pushes for U.S. to join his war on Iran

“Israel can strike all of Iran’s nuclear sites, but any help from our allies is welcome,” Netanyahu told Israel’s Kan News.

“President Trump will do what’s best for America, and I will do what’s best for Israel,” he added.

But without direct U.S. military action, observers warn, Israel may be walking into a trap — a war of attrition it cannot win, especially without a political strategy or an exit plan.

War developments

Over the past week, the Israeli-Iranian war has witnessed continuous escalation, marked by an exchange of bombardments between the two sides. As casualties mount inside Israel, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz escalated his rhetoric, threatening Iran’s Supreme Leader Sayyed Ali Khamenei directly, saying, “He must not be allowed to remain in power.” This came amid shocking scenes of destruction in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Herzliya, Be’er Sheva and other areas.

While Israeli military censorship has largely prevented media from capturing images of the extensive damage, official Israeli data indicates that more than 5,000 Israelis have been displaced in the first week of the war. The conflict has also resulted in 24 deaths and 2,345 injuries of varying severity. According to the Hebrew news site Ynet, quoting the Ministry of Interior on Thursday, 5,110 people have been classified as displaced and are receiving temporary housing in hotels or shelters funded by the government.

The largest numbers of displaced individuals are from Ramat Gan (955) and Petah Tikva (945) — two of the areas hardest hit by Iranian missile strikes. Other counts include 907 from Tel Aviv, 812 from Bat Yam, 550 from Bnei Brak and 368 from Rehovot.

Iran’s attacks intensify

Iran has launched approximately 500 ballistic and hypersonic missiles in 15 waves against Israel since the beginning of the war. Around 20 of those struck populated areas, while hundreds of others targeted military, intelligence and research sites. Israel claims that Iran has also launched about 1,000 drones, more than 100 of which managed to infiltrate Israeli airspace, though Israeli military sources assert that none reached their intended targets.

One of the largest attacks occurred Thursday morning, when Iranian missiles caused heavy damage to towers in central Tel Aviv and struck Soroka Hospital in Be’er Sheva, where Israeli soldiers wounded in the Gaza war were being treated. Iran stated the intended target was a nearby military intelligence base, not the hospital. Despite its usual media blackout, Israel allowed journalists to photograph the hospital damage in a bid to elicit international sympathy amid mounting criticism of its Gaza bombing of hospitals campaign.

According to Israeli Channel 13, the financial cost of the war may reach 100 billion shekels (around $34 billion).

Inside Iran

Despite Iranian media restrictions, reports indicate hundreds of casualties amid daily Israeli airstrikes across the country, including as far as the northwestern border. Iranian air defenses have managed to down some drones, and Israel claimed strikes on Natanz, Isfahan (Arak) and even the Bushehr nuclear reactor — Iran’s only operational nuclear power plant.

The opening phase of Israel’s assault was reportedly carried out by Mossad agents operating inside Tehran, who assassinated high-level figures and sabotaged radar and air defense systems using miniature drones. Iranian authorities have since arrested several operatives and uncovered secret drone and explosives manufacturing sites.

Ongoing genocide in Gaza

While Israel focused militarily on Iran in the opening days of the war, it resumed full-scale bombardments of Gaza, targeting tents of displaced people and civilian homes. Thursday marked one of the deadliest days, with around 100 Palestinians killed, including 22 people waiting for food distribution, as Israeli attacks continue during the writing of this report.

The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned that hospitals in Gaza are collapsing due to blackouts, water shortages are critical and ambulances are unable to reach the wounded. The U.N. also called on Israeli forces to stop using deadly force around food distribution points in Gaza.

Israel continues to obstruct international aid efforts for the third consecutive month, limiting access to food only via U.S.-run aid centers or by forcing desperate crowds to gather along aid truck routes in Netzarim (central Gaza) and Zikim (north Gaza). These chaotic conditions have led to daily casualties as people are crushed or targeted while trying to secure food.

Meanwhile, Palestinian resistance factions continue to ambush Israeli forces across Gaza. On Thursday, the Gaza Health Ministry announced that the death toll from Israel’s ongoing genocide since October 7, 2023, has reached 55,706 martyrs and 130,101 wounded.

Since the resumption of Israel’s offensive on March 18, 2024, alone, 5,401 Palestinians have been killed and around 18,000 injured.