In Lebanon, citizens welcomed the election of a president after more than two years of vacancy. However, a political crisis emerged when the “Shi’a duo” — the Amal Movement and Hezbollah — felt an agreement had been breached regarding their support for President Joseph Aoun. The duo was taken aback when 88 parliamentarians designated Judge Nawaf Salam as the prime minister-designate to form a new government, succeeding the caretaker government led by Najib Mikati, their preferred candidate, who secured only nine votes. In response, the duo’s MPs refrained from naming any candidate and chose not to participate in government formation consultations.
Lebanon is now in a state of anticipation, awaiting the outcomes of efforts to resolve disagreements and soften stances before the ceasefire agreement’s provisional period ends on January 27. During this time, Israeli forces have escalated their aggression by demolishing homes and bulldozing lands in the south.
Reports suggest that the new administration has entered a cold war that may affect various political agenda items, influenced by regional changes. Forming a new government likely requires an agreement with Hezbollah and the Amal Movement. A pivotal meeting between Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (leader of the Amal Movement and Hezbollah’s representative) and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam is scheduled for Friday, January 17. This meeting is expected to shape the next phase, with hopes also pinned on potential mediation by French President Emmanuel Macron, who is set to arrive in Beirut on the same day.
The government formation process and the new administration have garnered significant international support. Alongside declared U.S. backing, the Élysée Palace released a statement on Thursday indicating that President Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, during a phone conversation, expressed their full support for forming a strong Lebanese government. They pledged comprehensive assistance for the ongoing consultations aimed at establishing a capable government that unites Lebanon’s diverse population, ensures adherence to the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and implements necessary reforms for the country’s prosperity, stability and sovereignty.
This political contention unfolds as the Israeli military continues demolishing buildings in southern Lebanon and intensifies its violations. On Tuesday evening, occupation forces demolished remaining houses in the southern Lebanese towns of Mais al-Jabal and Kafr Kila. These aggressive breaches of the ceasefire agreement include incursions into the Bint Jbeil and Nabatieh districts, home invasions, drone strikes, road blockages, machine-gun sweeps and the deployment of stun grenades. Israeli drones have been observed flying at low altitudes.
On Monday, Israeli bombs rained down on south Lebanon. The Israeli army said its attacks were against Hezbollah military infrastructure, “threats” they said were left “unaddressed.” At the onset of the truce, the Israelis pledged to aggressively respond to a breach of any of the ceasefire’s terms.
“The chances are high that the [Israelis] will eventually withdraw, but whether they will do it by January 27 is debatable,” Randa Slim, a fellow with Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute, told The New Arab.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has not launched attacks across the border since the deal went into effect, but its patience is growing thin.
“Our patience is linked to when we deem the time to be right; it is the Resistance’s leadership that decides whether to remain patient, initiate an attack or respond,” Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, said in a speech on January 4.
“There is no specific timetable that determines the Resistance’s performance, whether through the agreement or after the 60 days or up.”
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