Affordability, the Israel-Palestine conflict and health care lead respondents’ priorities as poll finds strong motivation to vote.

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a commanding lead over Republican Mike Rogers among Arab and Muslim likely voters in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new Change Research survey released by the New Arc Collective.

The survey found 77 percent supporting El-Sayed and 18 percent backing Rogers. Another 2 percent planned to support a third party candidate, while 2 percent remained undecided.

Conducted October 16–23, the survey included 413 Arab and Muslim likely voters statewide and reported a modeled margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. Its findings concern that voter population, rather than Michigan’s electorate as a whole.

According to the New Arc Collective’s summary, El-Sayed has consolidated support among respondents who voted for third party candidates or did not vote in 2024. He also won support from more than one-third of respondents who said they voted for President Trump that year.

The organization described the findings as a dramatic shift from 2024, suggesting renewed engagement among voters whose choices drew national attention during the presidential election.

“For years, the story of our community’s electoral impact has been told by people who were not counting us accurately,” said Fayrouz Saad, co-founder and executive director of the New Arc Collective. “This survey gives us a clear picture of where Arab American and Muslim voters in Michigan stand.”

Strong motivation to vote

The survey also found high enthusiasm ahead of the November 3 election.

Three-quarters of respondents rated their motivation to vote at 10 out of 10. Meanwhile, 71 percent said they were more enthusiastic about this election than previous elections, including 57 percent who described themselves as much more enthusiastic.

Those findings indicate strong stated interest in participating, although enthusiasm measures do not establish how many respondents will ultimately cast ballots.

Affordability tops priorities

Asked to identify the three issues most important to their votes for governor and U.S. Senate, respondents most frequently selected affordability and the economy, at 51 percent.

The Israel-Palestine conflict followed at 45 percent, while the cost and availability of health care ranked third at 40 percent.

The results place household economic pressures alongside foreign policy and access to medical care as central concerns among the Arab and Muslim voters surveyed.

The New Arc Collective describes itself as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization working to strengthen civic data, research capacity and partnerships serving Arab and Muslim American communities.

The organization said the full survey report is available at newarccollective.org/reports.