The sight of hundreds of thousands of Gazans returning to the northern areas of the Strip, coupled with the return of southern Lebanese residents to their villages on Sunday, served as a double blow to the Israeli occupation. It was also a practical declaration of the failure of Israel’s war on Gaza and Lebanon, which the hardline government of Benjamin Netanyahu was forced to end under pressure from the newly elected President Trump.
But, Israel hopes to achieve through Trump what it failed to accomplish in 15 months of aggression.
While Israel managed to contain the Lebanese situation by having Washington pressure the Lebanese government into extending the Israeli military withdrawal deadline from southern Lebanon until February 18, the developments in Gaza were shocking. The situation required Trump’s envoy to personally intervene to persuade Netanyahu to proceed with the ceasefire agreement and the prisoner exchange with Hamas. Hamas demonstrated its continued control on the ground, with its fighters actively participating in the release of Israeli prisoners in Gaza, Khan Younis and other areas.
As Netanyahu struggles to salvage his government, which is reeling from the forced agreements on Gaza and Lebanon, Trump proposed the resettlement of a large portion of Gaza’s population in Egypt and Jordan. This proposal temporarily revitalized the Israeli right-wing, whose dreams of resettling Israelis in Gaza had been crushed by the return of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to northern Gaza — an area reduced to rubble by the Israeli war machine.
Hamas announced that 300,000 Palestinians had returned to northern Gaza through the Netzarim corridor, calling it a “victory for our people and a declaration of the failure of Israel’s displacement plans.” Islamic Jihad also saw the return as a response to those advocating for the displacement of Palestinians.
Despite Israel’s aspirations in war-torn Gaza, its army continues operations in the West Bank, where the right-wing government seeks to shift attention away from its failures in Gaza. Netanyahu is set to visit Washington next week to meet Trump, aiming to resume the war on Gaza after the prisoner exchange deal, as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has conditioned his continued support for the government on achieving “absolute victory” in Gaza. However, the Israeli government now faces the risk of what former National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called “absolute surrender.”
Last week, the third phase of the prisoner exchange between the Palestinian resistance and Israel was completed, with the fourth phase expected by Saturday. Hamas ensured that the transfer of released Israeli hostages was accompanied by large public and armed demonstrations, shocking the Israeli government. Netanyahu described the scenes from Gaza as “horrifying” and Israel conveyed its anger and threats to Qatari and Egyptian mediators.
Under the ceasefire agreement, which took effect on January 19, an initial 42-day period is designated for negotiations on two additional phases, mediated by Egypt and Qatar with U.S. support. Hamas responded, stating that “the massive turnout in prisoner exchanges in Khan Younis and Jabalia, amid the rubble left by Zionist fascism, is a message of persistence and defiance. Our people remain steadfast and committed to liberation, return and self-determination.”
During Hamas’ show of force last Thursday, Al-Qassam Brigades announced the martyrdom of its commander, Mohammed Deif, and several military council members during the 15-month conflict. The group’s spokesperson, Abu Ubaida, confirmed in a recorded message that these leaders “died in the battle of Al-Aqsa Flood, either in command centers, direct confrontations with enemy forces or while leading and managing the war against the enemy.”
Meanwhile, the Israeli army continued its military operations in Jenin for the second consecutive week, causing numerous casualties, arrests and extensive destruction. The occupation forces deployed reinforcements and heavy machinery, further escalating their campaign.
Trump’s “Gifts” to Netanyahu
In the midst of these developments, Trump extended several political favors to Netanyahu. He proposed “cleansing Gaza” in the name of peace in the Middle East, recommending that Jordan and Egypt would accommodate Gazan refugees.
“We have done a lot for them (Jordan and Egypt), and they will do what we ask,” Trump claimed, revealing discussions with Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
Onboard Air Force One, Trump declared his plan to relocate 1.5 million people from Gaza, either “temporarily or permanently.”
Militarily, Trump lifted the ban imposed by former President Biden on supplying Israel with 2,000-pound bombs, despite Biden’s administration having sent thousands of these bombs to Israel after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation before suspending further shipments.
The third “gift” from Trump was his support for banning the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) in Palestinian territories. Israel’s Knesset passed this racist and fascist decision as part of its ongoing war of extermination against Palestinians in new forms.
Netanyahu hopes that reviving the “resettlement option” will help reunite his fractured government. He also counts on Trump’s encouragement of “voluntary migration” from Gaza to buy time and provide Finance Minister Smotrich a reason to stay in government, possibly persuading the return of Ben-Gvir.
Lebanon: Extending the Israeli occupation forces withdrawal deadline
In Lebanon, the deadline for Israel’s withdrawal from the southern occupied territories expired on January 26 without full compliance. Instead, the deadline was extended until February 18, as announced by U.S. authorities and Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
The extension was facilitated by U.S. and French mediation under the pretext of “reducing tensions and paving the way for a long-term truce.” Reports suggest that Washington had been working on this extension for 10 days before the initial deadline, with Tel Aviv leaking news about seeking a further 60-day extension.
Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem emphasized that “extending Israel’s withdrawal means we are dealing with an occupation that attacks, destroys and refuses to leave. Resistance has the right to decide how and when to respond.” He affirmed that “Israel must withdraw immediately… We do not accept even a one-day extension.” He added that all Lebanese forces — people, army, state and resistance — are responsible for countering the occupation.
On the first day after the deadline, southern Lebanese residents took matters into their own hands. Without waiting for official approvals, they began returning to their villages, supported by the Lebanese army, which cleared roads but came under Israeli fire. The sheer determination of the people to return shocked Israeli forces, which responded by opening fire, killing 23 and injuring 124, including 12 women, nine children and a paramedic.
Israeli occupation forces continued their assaults, demolishing homes and razing lands in areas they failed to control during two months of ground incursions. Meanwhile, the Lebanese army expanded its deployment in several southern towns.
Against this backdrop, Lebanon faces the challenge of forming its first government under newly elected President Joseph Aoun. Disputes over ministerial representation continue to delay the process, with Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam advocating for a 24-minister cabinet, ruling out larger formations such as a 30-member unity government.
Lebanon remains caught between internal political challenges and ongoing Israeli aggression, while the return of displaced civilians signals a strong rejection of occupation and forced displacement.
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